Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:50:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AC 0xacaf…abaa sports 93 markets active 2h ago coverage 602d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$128 (-2%) realized −$146 · open +$18
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate55%49W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$218now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$49
7 days+$24
14 days+$24
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$544
sports 42% +$425
crypto 4% +$56
politics 2% −$5
world 2% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.9% -10.4% 67% 67% +7.8%
≤30d 3 -0.9% -10.4% 67% 67% +7.8%
≤90d 3 -0.9% -10.4% 67% 67% +7.8%
all 89 -5.6% -14.6% 55% 54% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 54% -11.5%
10% -22.8% 49% -20.0%
15% -30.2% 43% -27.7%
20% -37.1% 33% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% too few recent
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$61 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

602d coverage
Net worth$218
Realized−$146
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses49 / 40
Open positions4
Markets (closed)89 / 93
History coverage602d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 60¢ 80¢ $50 $67 +$17 (+34%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$30 +60%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$19 +38%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-12-10? Dec 09 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-12-06? Dec 09 $50 +$15 +30%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-12-09? Dec 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-06? Dec 06 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-12-06? Dec 06 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-12-03? Dec 06 $50 +$21 +43%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-12-03? Dec 03 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Bayern München win on 2025-11-29? Nov 30 $125 +$60 +48%
Will Bayern München win on 2025-11-22? Nov 29 $50 +$21 +43%
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-11-09? Nov 22 $50 +$64 +127%
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-11-09? Nov 22 $50 +$69 +138%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-09? Nov 09 $132 −$132 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-09? Nov 09 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Bayern München win on 2025-11-08? Nov 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2025-11-05? Nov 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-05? Nov 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-11-04? Nov 04 $150 +$278 +185%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2025-10-14? Oct 14 $150 −$150 -100%
Will PSG win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Vitinha win the Golden Ball at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on July 10? Jul 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Mexico win the 2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup? Jul 07 $60 +$41 +68%
FIFA Club World Cup: Palmeiras vs. Chelsea (To Advance) Jul 05 $50 −$50 -100%
FIFA Club World Cup: Fluminense vs. Al Hilal (To Advance) Jul 05 $50 +$61 +122%
Fluminense vs. Al Hilal: 3+ Goals Scored? Jul 04 $50 −$21 -41%
Concacaf Gold Cup: Mexico vs. Honduras (To Advance) Jul 03 $100 +$18 +18%
Concacaf Gold Cup: USA vs. Guatemala (To Advance) Jul 03 $100 +$15 +15%
Dortmund vs. Monterrey: 3+ Goals Scored? Jul 02 $60 +$46 +77%
FIFA Club World Cup: Inter Milan vs. Fluminense (To Advance) Jun 30 $76 +$115 +151%
Inter Milan vs. Fluminense: 3+ Goals Scored? Jun 30 $50 −$37 -74%
Concacaf Gold Cup: USA vs. Costa Rica (To Advance) Jun 30 $50 +$18 +35%
FIFA Club World Cup: Flamengo vs. Bayern Munich (To Advance) Jun 30 $100 +$35 +36%
Flamengo vs. Bayern Munich: 3+ Goals Scored? Jun 29 $50 +$42 +84%
PSG vs. Inter Miami: 4+ Goals Scored? Jun 29 $50 +$33 +66%
FIFA Club World Cup: Benfica vs. Chelsea (To Advance) Jun 29 $50 +$31 +61%
FIFA Club World Cup: Palmeiras vs. Botafogo (To Advance) Jun 28 $50 +$31 +61%
Will Manchester City win Group G at the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 26 $50 +$41 +82%
Will Internazionale win Group E at the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 26 $50 +$22 +44%
Will Fluminense beat Mamelodi? Jun 26 $160 −$160 -100%
Will FC Porto beat Al Ahly? Jun 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Flamengo beat LAFC? Jun 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win Group C at the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Bayern Munich beat Benfica? Jun 24 $125 −$101 -80%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win Group B at the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 24 $50 +$33 +67%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 23 $50 +$20 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $25 2d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-12-10? BUY Yes 61¢ $65 192d
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-12-09? BUY Yes 49¢ $50 192d
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-06? BUY Yes 52¢ $61 195d
Will Manchester City win on 2025-12-06? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 195d
Will Arsenal win on 2025-12-06? BUY Yes 52¢ $50 195d
Will Arsenal win on 2025-12-06? BUY Yes 52¢ $50 195d
Will Chelsea win on 2025-12-03? BUY Yes 26¢ $25 198d
Will Chelsea win on 2025-12-03? BUY Yes 51¢ $50 198d
Will Arsenal win on 2025-12-03? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 198d
Will Bayern München win on 2025-11-29? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 202d
Will Bayern München win on 2025-11-29? BUY Yes 61¢ $50 202d
Will Bayern München win on 2025-11-29? BUY Yes 67¢ $25 202d
Will Bayern München win on 2025-11-22? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 209d
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-09? BUY Yes 68¢ $132 222d
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-11-09? BUY Yes 44¢ $50 222d
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-09? BUY Yes 26¢ $25 222d
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-11-09? BUY Yes 42¢ $50 222d
Will Bayern München win on 2025-11-08? BUY Yes 53¢ $100 223d
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2025-11-05? BUY Yes 51¢ $100 226d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-05? BUY Yes 65¢ $100 226d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-11-04? SELL Yes 100¢ $428 226d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY No $20 227d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-11-04? BUY Yes 35¢ $150 227d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $217.52 · official $217.52 (match) · 187 history records