Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:32:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xacaf…1f47 other 64 markets active 0h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$88 (-6%) realized −$20 · open −$68
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate40%19W / 29L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$43
14 days+$244
30 days+$212
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$64
tech 18% +$4
economics 13% $0
politics 10% −$6
sports 9% +$198
world 4% −$28
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +7.4% -2.8% 80% 60% +25.0%
≤30d 21 +45.0% +31.2% 33% 29% +25.7%
≤90d 47 +6.4% -3.8% 38% 26% -4.3%
all 48 +6.2% -3.9% 40% 25% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.9% 25% -4.4%
10% -13.1% 15% -13.5%
15% -21.5% 15% -21.9%
20% -29.2% 8% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$7 · ×2.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.9 per $1 lost it wins $1.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized−$20
Unrealized−$68
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses19 / 29
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions8
Markets (closed)48 / 64
History coverage147d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $91 $84 −$7 (-8%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $10 −$30 (-75%)
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? Yes $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Weed rescheduled by June 30? Yes $9 $3 −$5 (-61%)
Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027? Yes $8 $2 −$6 (-75%)
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027? Yes $12 $2 −$10 (-87%)
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? No $10 $1 −$9 (-87%)
Will Raluca Turcan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes $2 $0 −$1 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 23 $30 +$2 +7%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 23 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 −$18 -71%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $51 +$20 +39%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $51 +$37 +71%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 18 $45 +$7 +16%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? AND Will United Jun 13 $5 +$213 +4140%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Ebola pandemic in 2026? Jun 04 $19 −$4 -20%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026? May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by May 31? May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? May 29 $7 +$1 +16%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 28 $23 −$1 -4%
Will 0 world records be broken at the 2026 Enhanced Games? May 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $30 +$1 +3%
Will China announce rare earth export relief by May 22? May 22 $6 −$5 -88%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31? May 21 $21 +$39 +192%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Bank of America or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as th May 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the May 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Will OpenAI announce a phone in 2026? May 18 $17 +$7 +42%
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? May 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Frontier Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31? May 17 $19 +$8 +44%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 11 $10 +$2 +22%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 07 $21 −$20 -98%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week May 05 $26 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 1 to May 8, May 05 $21 +$16 +77%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 1 to May 8, May 05 $8 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast's video get between 66 and 68 million views on day 3? May 04 $36 −$13 -35%
Will MrBeast's video get between 64 and 66 million views on day 3? May 04 $90 +$1 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $70 $0 -0%
Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations? May 01 $31 −$30 -96%
Chirayu Rana divorced? May 01 $31 −$5 -15%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $22 +$3 +12%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W May 01 $94 −$3 -3%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 08 $195 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 08 $197 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jan Jan 30 $18 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $28 11m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 2h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 15¢ $32 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes $4 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes $6 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes $2 2d
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? BUY No $10 2d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $30 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $5 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes $6 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 4d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $41 4d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $71 4d
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes $5 4d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 4d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $88 6d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $53 7d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2 BUY $3 7d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herz BUY $3 7d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-0 BUY $3 8d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia BUY $3 8d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in BUY $3 8d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY $3 8d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 9d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY $3 9d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Jordan win on 2026-06- BUY $3 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes $0 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes $3 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes $0 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.03 · official $108.96 (match) · 312 history records