Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:51:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

AC 0xacb1…7747 tech 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 79d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$24 (+1%) realized +$21 · open +$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip

Net edge-9%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate100%14W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$238per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$1,046now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 79d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-9.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	4	+0.4%	-9.2%	100%	0%	-9.2%
≤90d	14	+0.6%	-9.0%	100%	0%	-9.0%
all	14	+0.6%	-9.0%	100%	0%	-9.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-9.0%	0%	-9.0%
10%	-17.7%	0%	-17.7%
15%	-25.7%	0%	-25.6%
20%	-32.9%	0%	-32.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 31% · top 2 60% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$1 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage

Net worth$1,046

Realized+$21

Unrealized+$3

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses14 / 0

Open positions4

Markets (closed)14 / 18

History coverage79d

Avg bet$238

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 14 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	No	99¢	100¢	$414	$416	+$2 (+0%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	94¢	94¢	$249	$250	+$1 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June?	No	100¢	100¢	$213	$213	+$0 (+0%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	96¢	96¢	$168	$168	−$0 (-0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Jun 10	$201	+$1	+0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May?	Jun 10	$231	$0	+0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	Jun 10	$291	+$1	+0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	Jun 10	$316	+$3	+1%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	May 08	$166	+$1	+0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	May 08	$206	+$1	+0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April?	May 08	$207	+$1	+0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	May 08	$218	+$6	+3%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April	May 08	$230	+$5	+2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March?	Apr 04	$167	$0	+0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March?	Apr 04	$172	$0	+0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	Apr 04	$195	$0	+0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March?	Apr 04	$213	$0	+0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March	Apr 04	$280	$0	+0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	BUY Yes	95¢	$148	1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June?	SELL No	100¢	$148	1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	BUY No	99¢	$414	8d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June?	BUY No	100¢	$361	8d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June	BUY Yes	96¢	$168	8d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	BUY Yes	92¢	$101	8d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	BUY No	100¢	$201	40d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	BUY No	99¢	$129	40d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	BUY No	99¢	$187	40d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May?	BUY No	100¢	$231	40d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	BUY No	100¢	$291	40d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	BUY No	97¢	$218	74d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April?	BUY No	100¢	$207	74d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	BUY No	100¢	$206	74d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	BUY No	100¢	$166	74d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April	BUY Yes	98¢	$230	74d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	BUY No	100¢	$195	79d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March?	BUY No	100¢	$213	79d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March	BUY Yes	100¢	$280	79d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March?	BUY No	100¢	$172	79d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March?	BUY No	100¢	$167	79d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,046.22 · official $1,046.58 (match) · 35 history records