Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:18:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xacb2…b989 sports 81 markets active 3d ago coverage 22d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 22d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (153 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$192,357 (+44%) realized +$192,155 · open +$202
Gross ROI / mkt +43% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate57%45W / 34L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$5,453per market
Trades / day152.6pace
Fees−$9,029est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$2,558now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$31,595
other 5% +$6,517
crypto 0% −$500
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (153 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+29.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -21.4% -28.9% 38% 38% -45.0%
≤30d 79 +43.2% +29.5% 57% 52% -6.7%
≤90d 79 +43.2% +29.5% 57% 52% -6.7%
all 79 +43.2% +29.5% 57% 52% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover152.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +29.5% 52% -6.7%
10% +17.1% 52% -15.6%
15% ← realistic here +5.8% 52% -23.8%
20% -4.5% 49% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +43% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$5,200) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +21% → late +65% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
31.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4,571 vs −$4,950 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$2,558
Realized+$192,155
Unrealized+$202
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses45 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$9,029
Open positions2
Markets (closed)79 / 81
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$5,453
Trades / day152.6
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $2,335 $2,534 +$199 (+9%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $24 +$4 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $5,005 −$5,005 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $65,682 −$65,682 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $3,913 +$4,777 +122%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 11 $64 −$64 -100%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 11 $456 −$456 -100%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 11 $2,668 −$2,668 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 11 $1,620 −$1,620 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 111.5 Jun 11 $226 −$226 -100%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5 Jun 11 $256 −$256 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 11 $39 +$48 +122%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 11 $399 +$433 +108%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $5,000 +$5,000 +100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $29,766 +$20,636 +69%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $5,000 +$5,000 +100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $500 −$500 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Yannick Hanfmann vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Jun 09 $197 +$131 +67%
Stuttgart Open: Quentin Halys vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 09 $269 +$403 +150%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $19,693 +$1,227 +6%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $5,800 +$4,200 +72%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $5,000 +$12,250 +245%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $5,600 −$5,600 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 03 $4,007 +$5,369 +134%
Will Alex Caruso win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP? May 31 $747 −$747 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $19 +$24,078 +124191%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 3.5 May 31 $3,090 +$2,427 +78%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 12.5 May 31 $889 −$889 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $5,400 −$5,400 -100%
World Championships: Canada vs. Finland May 31 $4,725 −$4,725 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 May 30 $4,800 $0 -0%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 30 $5,215 −$5,215 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 30 $5,682 +$43 +1%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $28,794 +$1,206 +4%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 May 29 $868 +$1,019 +117%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 29 $5,370 +$5,170 +96%
Will Club Universitario de Deportes win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $6,528 +$5,033 +77%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 27 $3,974 −$3,974 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 217.5 May 27 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 27 $4,500 −$4,500 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 May 27 $4,700 −$4,700 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $35,930 −$6,066 -17%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) May 27 $281 −$281 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) May 27 $981 −$981 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics May 27 $4,800 +$5,100 +106%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers May 27 $5,400 +$4,591 +85%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets May 27 $5,200 +$4,800 +92%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 27 $5,600 +$4,400 +79%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals May 27 $9,600 +$5,400 +56%
Roland Garros ATP: Ethan Quinn vs Francisco Comesana May 26 $4,875 −$4,875 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 26 $4,308 −$4,287 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 26 $4,300 −$4,300 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $20 3d
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes $3 3d
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes $2 3d
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes $4 3d
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 3d
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 11¢ $22 3d
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 11¢ $16 3d
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 3d
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 3d
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 3d
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 3d
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 11¢ $17 3d
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 3d
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 3d
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 3d
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 3d
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 3d
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 3d
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 5d
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 5d
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 5d
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 5d
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 5d
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 5d
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 5d
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 5d
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,557.84 · official $2,557.84 (match) · 3500 history records