Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T12:24:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AC
0xacb3…064a
sports · 148 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$75 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$107 · open +$21
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$391
Realized−$107
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses65 / 73
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions10
Markets (closed)138 / 148
History coverage24d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 10 History 138 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$47
7 days−$47
14 days−$34
30 days−$107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Down 96¢ 100¢ $95 $98 +$3 (+4%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 79¢ 81¢ $67 $69 +$2 (+3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Down 92¢ 100¢ $45 $49 +$4 (+9%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 37¢ 60¢ $30 $48 +$18 (+62%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 74¢ 56¢ $28 $21 −$7 (-25%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 69¢ 69¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 30¢ 41¢ $14 $19 +$5 (+38%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 38¢ 38¢ $19 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Sinja Kraus Sinja Kraus 50¢ 50¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? No 74¢ 72¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-3%)
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) Alex Perez 58¢ 50¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-14%)
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Bilibili Gaming 62¢ 100¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+61%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Up 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? No 63¢ 68¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul Tommy Paul 34¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Thunder 47¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Thunder 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners Arizona Diamondbacks 43¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Titouan Droguet vs Jakub Mensik Titouan Droguet 35¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) San Francisco Giants 61¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 Over 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Up 78¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5 Under 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $85 −$29 -34%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $30 −$7 -23%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $18 −$7 -37%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 $0 -2%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 06 $6 +$12 +187%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans Jun 02 $2 +$2 +83%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $30 +$26 +86%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) May 31 $6 +$4 +57%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 31 $3 +$2 +83%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners May 31 $7 −$7 -98%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) May 31 $6 −$6 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Luis Felipe Dias vs. Yi Sak Lee (Middleweight, Prelim May 31 $30 +$18 +60%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 31 $1 +$1 +67%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 31 $32 −$26 -80%
UFC Fight Night: Loma Lookboonmee vs. Jaqueline Amorim (Women's Straww May 31 $6 +$4 +76%
O/U 1.5 Rounds May 31 $8 +$5 +58%
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) May 30 $9 −$1 -14%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 30 $6 +$1 +18%
Spread: New York Yankees (-6.5) May 30 $6 +$4 +70%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 30 $9 −$9 -96%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) May 30 $5 +$3 +60%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Washington Mystics May 30 $22 +$24 +109%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 May 30 $30 −$30 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5 May 30 $7 +$5 +73%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-5.5) May 30 $9 +$10 +101%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 30 $29 −$13 -44%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 29 $6 −$4 -71%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 29 $9 −$9 -96%
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? May 29 $11 −$1 -12%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul May 29 $8 −$8 -98%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -98%
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET May 29 $9 +$3 +37%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -95%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 29 $7 +$3 +38%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 May 29 $6 −$6 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 29 $40 −$20 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 29 $14 −$14 -96%
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 29 $9 +$7 +73%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $18 −$1 -4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? May 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA (+1.5) May 29 $30 +$21 +70%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 29 $36 −$3 -7%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-2.5) May 29 $5 +$5 +97%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $7 +$5 +65%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-4.5) May 29 $21 +$21 +102%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) May 29 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Vålerenga Fotball (-1.5) May 29 $9 −$9 -99%
Counter-Strike: magic vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 29 $10 +$16 +158%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - Esports World C May 29 $28 +$5 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 54% +$174
world 33% −$228
crypto 12% −$24
other 0% −$5
finance 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 74¢ $12 1m
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Sinja BUY Sinja Kraus 50¢ $8 32m
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Sinja BUY Sinja Kraus 50¢ $8 32m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 63¢ $29 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 38¢ $19 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 63¢ $30 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $26 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 29¢ $23 1h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 62¢ $5 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $7 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $13 3h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $11 4h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL Gen.G 68¢ $5 4h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 68¢ $5 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $30 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 38¢ $30 5h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $14 6h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? SELL No 64¢ $5 14d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 63¢ $6 14d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 43¢ $7 14d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $30 14d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 53¢ $30 14d
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 59¢ $6 14d
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Perez 58¢ $9 15d
UFC Fight Night: Loma Lookboonmee vs. Jaqueline Amorim (Women's Straww BUY Jaqueline Amorim 56¢ $6 15d
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $6 15d
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $9 15d
Spread: New York Yankees (-6.5) BUY Athletics 58¢ $6 15d
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 34¢ $6 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -39.3% -45.1% 0% 0% -39.5%
≤30d 138 -6.2% -15.2% 47% 44% -14.7%
≤90d 138 -6.2% -15.2% 47% 44% -14.7%
all 138 -6.2% -15.2% 47% 44% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 44% -14.7%
10% -23.3% 42% -22.8%
15% -30.7% 38% -30.3%
20% -37.5% 36% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $391.28 · official $391.29 (match) · 267 history records