trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 5¢ | 5¢ | $200 | $214 | +$14 (+7%) |
| Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? | Yes | 67¢ | 100¢ | $120 | $178 | +$58 (+48%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 17¢ | 17¢ | $100 | $98 | −$2 (-2%) |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 89¢ | 89¢ | $50 | $50 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? | Yes | 6¢ | 6¢ | $30 | $28 | −$2 (-8%) |
| Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $30 | $23 | −$7 (-24%) |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 5¢ | 5¢ | $20 | $20 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 8¢ | 7¢ | $20 | $18 | −$2 (-11%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Yes | 26¢ | 22¢ | $20 | $17 | −$3 (-13%) |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $20 | $16 | −$4 (-18%) |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? | Yes | 9¢ | 6¢ | $20 | $14 | −$6 (-28%) |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 19¢ | 0¢ | $190 | $0 | −$190 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) | Jun 14 | $10 | +$4 | +42% |
| Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? | Jun 14 | $494 | +$511 | +104% |
| Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? | Jun 14 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |
| Spread: Australia (-1.5) | Jun 14 | $301 | −$228 | -76% |
| Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? | Jun 14 | $51 | −$42 | -83% |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $15 | −$12 | -80% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 14 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |
| Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) | Jun 14 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? | Jun 14 | $52 | −$34 | -66% |
| Spread: Scotland (-1.5) | Jun 14 | $10 | +$6 | +55% |
| Spread: Brazil (-1.5) | Jun 14 | $10 | +$4 | +44% |
| Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 | Jun 13 | $20 | +$31 | +152% |
| Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? | Jun 13 | $101 | −$3 | -3% |
| Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? | Jun 13 | $292 | −$7 | -2% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | Jun 13 | $68 | −$3 | -4% |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 13 | $195 | −$190 | -98% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 13 | $5 | $0 | -1% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $341 | +$372 | +109% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? | Jun 12 | $52 | −$22 | -42% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 19 | -13.3% | -21.6% | 32% | 32% | +5.2% |
| ≤30d | 19 | -13.3% | -21.6% | 32% | 32% | +5.2% |
| ≤90d | 19 | -13.3% | -21.6% | 32% | 32% | +5.2% |
| all | 19 | -13.3% | -21.6% | 32% | 32% | +5.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -21.6% | 32% | +5.2% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -29.1% | 32% | -4.8% |
| 15% | -35.9% | 32% | -14.0% |
| 20% | -42.2% | 21% | -22.5% |