Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:49:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AC 0xacb4…6f3c crypto 1488 markets active 3d ago coverage 52d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 51d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$243 (-3%) realized −$243 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%1123W / 365L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day42.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$58
14 days−$69
30 days−$153
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$172
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 331 -6.5% -15.4% 70% 70% -12.6%
≤30d 1353 -2.1% -11.4% 76% 76% -11.2%
≤90d 1488 -2.5% -11.8% 75% 75% -11.2%
all 1488 -2.5% -11.8% 75% 75% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.8% 75% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -20.2% 51% -19.7%
15% -27.9% 18% -27.5%
20% -35.0% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$243
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses1123 / 365
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1488 / 1488
History coverage52d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day42.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1488 Trades
no open positions (65 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $23 +$9 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $23 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$4 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$3 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$4 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $23 +$9 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $23 +$10 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $33 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $30 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $9 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $14 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $19 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $17 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $8 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records