Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:01:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
AC 0xacb4…7595 sports 337 markets active 5h ago coverage 75d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 74d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$218,756 (-126%) realized −$200,174 · open −$18,582
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate56%187W / 146L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$513per market
Trades / day42.8pace
Fees−$1,032est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$11,710now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 75d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% +$12,313
world 27% −$18,160
other 10% −$311
crypto 9% +$1,759
tech 7% +$5,005
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +29.1% +16.8% 71% 59% +33.4%
≤30d 18 +29.9% +17.5% 72% 61% +33.3%
≤90d 333 +1.3% -8.3% 56% 53% +3.6%
all 333 +1.3% -8.3% 56% 53% +3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 53% +3.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.1% 48% -6.4%
15% -25.1% 39% -15.4%
20% -32.4% 31% -23.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$282 vs −$231 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$11,710
Realized−$200,174
Unrealized−$18,582
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses187 / 146
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$1,032
Open positions4
Markets (closed)333 / 337
History coverage75d ⚠
Avg bet$513
Trades / day42.8
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 333 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 44¢ 16¢ $16,339 $5,971 −$10,368 (-63%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 22¢ $11,633 $3,362 −$8,271 (-71%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 92¢ 96¢ $2,155 $2,256 +$101 (+5%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? No 50¢ 36¢ $166 $121 −$45 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $5,005 −$65 -1%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $817 +$98 +12%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 14 $197 +$335 +170%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 14 $9,290 +$13,932 +150%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 14 $2,156 +$2,895 +134%
1H Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 14 $493 −$493 -100%
1H Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 14 $3,745 −$3,745 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $4,185 +$315 +8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $3,493 +$1,807 +52%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $463 +$109 +24%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $2,695 +$3,805 +141%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $1,031 −$1,031 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $7,851 +$3,889 +50%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $6,867 +$365 +5%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 218.5 Jun 11 $174 +$148 +85%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 10 $3,715 +$2,434 +66%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? Jun 01 $1,588 +$681 +43%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 08 $2,597 −$2,595 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 08 $537 −$7 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 08 $2,264 −$285 -13%
Wild vs. Blues Apr 14 $350 −$350 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Apr 13 $10 −$9 -96%
Perth Glory FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 12 $457 −$457 -100%
Will Yokohama FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $186 +$158 +85%
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $517 +$208 +40%
CF América vs. CF Cruz Azul: O/U 2.5 Apr 12 $293 +$351 +120%
Wuning: Harry Wendelken vs Pavel Kotov Apr 12 $2,582 −$1,456 -56%
Will Kashima Antlers win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $615 −$615 -100%
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Kashima Antlers: O/U 1.5 Apr 12 $424 −$424 -100%
Melbourne City FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 4.5 Apr 12 $186 +$46 +25%
Will Melbourne City FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $1,737 +$90 +5%
Roasso Kumamoto vs. Tegevajaro Miyazaki: O/U 2.5 Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $770 +$229 +30%
Will San Diego FC vs. Minnesota United FC end in a draw? Apr 12 $26 +$6 +23%
Will San Diego FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $1,034 +$403 +39%
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Ca Apr 12 $276 +$286 +104%
Mexico City: Luka Pavlovic vs Stefano Napolitano Apr 12 $86 +$22 +25%
Will EC Vitória win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $1,143 +$482 +42%
Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres Apr 12 $278 −$275 -99%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $272 −$260 -95%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $899 +$202 +22%
Atalanta BC vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 11 $553 +$345 +62%
FC Groningen vs. Go Ahead Eagles: O/U 2.5 Apr 11 $137 +$107 +79%
Will CF Montréal win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $305 −$305 -100%
Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $624 +$152 +24%
AJ Auxerre vs. FC Nantes: O/U 1.5 Apr 11 $354 +$171 +48%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Joao Fonseca vs Alexander Zverev Apr 11 $88 −$52 -59%
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 11 $78 −$78 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Apr 11 $74 −$74 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $600 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $522 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $87 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $1 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $6 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $1 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $0 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $30 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $0 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $0 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $0 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $0 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $0 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $6 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $8 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $0 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $0 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $0 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $0 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $0 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $1 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $0 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $0 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $0 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $4 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $186 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $2 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $924 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $0 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $15 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,710.20 · official $11,710.20 (match) · 3500 history records