Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:06:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
AC 0xacb5…05ee other 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$648 (+8%) realized +$702 · open −$54
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate51%24W / 23L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$290now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$259
14 days−$10
30 days−$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 34% +$207
other 25% −$499
finance 21% +$154
politics 16% +$444
sports 3% +$190
culture 1% +$19
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -11.7% -20.1% 29% 24% -24.0%
≤30d 26 -7.0% -15.8% 38% 23% -10.5%
≤90d 45 -6.3% -15.2% 49% 33% -3.2%
all 47 -3.3% -12.5% 51% 36% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 36% -2.7%
10% -20.9% 30% -12.0%
15% -28.5% 19% -20.5%
20% -35.5% 15% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$24 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.02 per $1 lost it wins $2.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$290
Realized+$702
Unrealized−$54
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses24 / 23
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions7
Markets (closed)47 / 54
History coverage96d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $149 $119 −$30 (-20%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $35 −$5 (-12%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $35 −$5 (-12%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $34 $31 −$3 (-9%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $32 $25 −$7 (-22%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25 $22 −$2 (-10%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $24 $22 −$2 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 −$6 -27%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $224 +$8 +4%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $267 −$5 -2%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $111 +$87 +79%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $156 −$113 -72%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $33 −$4 -12%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $77 −$4 -5%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $34 −$5 -14%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $89 −$7 -8%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $41 −$22 -53%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $219 −$219 -100%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $53 +$6 +11%
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $29 −$1 -5%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $111 +$109 +98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$36 -70%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $87 −$54 -62%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $16 +$7 +40%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $14 +$4 +28%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $2,276 +$248 +11%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $91 −$1 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $46 +$1 +1%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $86 −$3 -4%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 03 $157 −$45 -28%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $43 +$3 +7%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on May 29 $78 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? May 29 $106 +$4 +4%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W May 04 $892 +$326 +37%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the May 04 $399 +$117 +29%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 13 $115 −$1 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Apr 08 $100 +$24 +24%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 08 $200 +$24 +12%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 31 $601 +$24 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 30 $110 +$26 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Mar 28 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Mar 28 $2 +$3 +156%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 28 $175 +$10 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Mar 28 $1 +$1 +101%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March? Mar 23 $304 +$28 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 23 $75 +$20 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Mar 21 $1 +$1 +62%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $70 +$48 +69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $25 1h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $41 16h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $33 16h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $41 39h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $16 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $109 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $104 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $13 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $198 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 22¢ $43 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $57 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 53¢ $54 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $66 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $35 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $90 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $109 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $100 3d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $29 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $47 4d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $29 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $82 4d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $29 4d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 4d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 4d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 4d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 4d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 4d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $290.00 · official $290.00 (match) · 307 history records