Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:34:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
AC 0xacb7…2ebb weather 133 markets active 1h ago coverage 344d
RISKYcopy with care
Total PnL −$58 (-2%) realized −$34 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate49%64W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$181
7 days+$197
14 days+$218
30 days+$203
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 52% +$19
crypto 29% −$117
sports 16% +$17
other 2% −$11
world 0% −$10
economics 0% −$7
culture 0% +$4
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +41.0% +27.5% 53% 53% +27.5%
≤30d 44 +20.8% +9.3% 45% 45% +16.8%
≤90d 99 +13.7% +2.9% 51% 45% -7.2%
all 131 +23.4% +11.6% 49% 45% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.6% 45% -10.9%
10% +0.9% 36% -19.5%
15% -8.8% 28% -27.2%
20% -17.8% 27% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$15 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

344d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$34
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses64 / 67
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)131 / 133
History coverage344d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $23 $22 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $43 +$49 +113%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $9 −$8 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $76 +$13 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $8 +$71 +867%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$3 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $53 +$5 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $97 +$22 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $33 +$41 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $17 −$14 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $85 +$17 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $40 −$34 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 +$25 +160%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $21 +$48 +231%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $26 −$26 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 12 $18 −$17 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $80 +$22 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $17 +$29 +173%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $11 −$10 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $7 +$13 +186%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 10? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 9? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 5? Jun 04 $7 −$7 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 5? Jun 04 $30 −$30 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 5? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 5? Jun 04 $5 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 2? Jun 02 $10 +$21 +202%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $28 +$10 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 2? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 1? Jun 01 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 29? May 29 $12 +$8 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 29? May 29 $2 +$8 +381%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 29? May 29 $26 −$26 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 28? May 28 $31 +$19 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 21? May 21 $4 +$5 +122%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 21? May 21 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $9 +$16 +172%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 20 $2 +$6 +244%
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $5 −$5 -97%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Q May 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 19 $4 −$4 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Kor May 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 18 $32 −$1 -5%
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualif May 18 $3 +$7 +248%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea May 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 16? May 15 $181 −$93 -51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 23¢ $24 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? SELL Yes 100¢ $65 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? SELL Yes 66¢ $20 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 13¢ $20 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $89 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? SELL Yes 23¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 83¢ $76 9h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 18h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 34¢ $11 18h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 31¢ $12 29h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 97¢ $6 30h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 30h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 95¢ $0 31h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 95¢ $1 31h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 95¢ $15 31h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 31h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 31h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 31h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 31h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 95¢ $7 31h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 79¢ $10 31h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.60 · official $22.60 (match) · 501 history records