Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:21:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AC 0xacb7…a465 crypto 735 markets active 1h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$298 (-3%) realized −$299 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%378W / 354L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day23.9pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days+$117
14 days+$100
30 days−$360
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$566
other 16% +$78
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -13.3% -21.5% 53% 49% -1.6%
≤30d 680 -6.0% -15.0% 51% 50% -13.3%
≤90d 732 -6.6% -15.5% 52% 50% -14.4%
all 732 -6.6% -15.5% 52% 50% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.5% 50% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 48% -22.6%
15% -31.0% 46% -30.0%
20% -37.8% 44% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$12 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$299
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses378 / 354
Open positions3
Markets (closed)732 / 735
History coverage37d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day23.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 732 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Up 52¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Down 25¢ 50¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+98%)
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 47¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 327 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 21 $7 +$6 +89%
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +31%
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$25 +81%
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 21 $72 −$16 -22%
BNB Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$20 +64%
BNB Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$20 +64%
BNB Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 20 $72 +$53 +73%
BNB Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -95%
BNB Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$9 +83%
BNB Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$18 +72%
BNB Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$23 +74%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +13%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $72 +$39 +54%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $17 +$4 +25%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $72 +$38 +53%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$10 -49%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +30%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$7 +68%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$5 +44%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$2 +6%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $82 +$55 +67%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $38 −$37 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $17 −$16 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +4%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$13 +64%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$10 -48%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +39%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $216 +$154 +71%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $72 −$70 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$10 +90%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +20%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +48%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$2 -16%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 -1%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +63%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $47 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 51m
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 54m
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $7 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $56 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $72 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $31 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $10 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $31 44h
BNB Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 44h
BNB Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $31 44h
BNB Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $9 44h
BNB Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $72 45h
BNB Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $31 45h
BNB Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 45h
BNB Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 47h
BNB Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $25 47h
BNB Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 47h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $54 4d
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $31 4d
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 4d
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 4d
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $12 4d
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 4d
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $72 4d
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $31 4d
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 4d
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $0 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.95 · official $5.95 (match) · 1253 history records