Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:05:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xacbc…c1c2 crypto 71 markets active 0h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4,026 (-77%) realized −$4,026 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate27%19W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$167now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2,103
14 days−$2,103
30 days−$2,103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 84% −$3,917
crypto 13% −$115
other 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -94.8% -95.3% 0% 0% -82.9%
≤30d 4 -94.8% -95.3% 0% 0% -82.9%
≤90d 4 -94.8% -95.3% 0% 0% -82.9%
all 70 -12.4% -20.7% 27% 26% -81.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 26% -81.4%
10% -28.3% 24% -83.2%
15% -35.2% 21% -84.8%
20% -41.6% 20% -86.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -81% too few recent
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -79% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -52% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$83 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$167
Realized−$4,026
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses19 / 51
Open positions1
Markets (closed)70 / 71
History coverage152d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $103 $102 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 32¢ 32¢ $65 $65 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Phan Văn Giang be the next President of Vietnam? Jun 18 $2,336 −$1,847 -79%
Will Trần Cẩm Tú be the next President of Vietnam? Jun 18 $113 −$113 -100%
Will Nguyễn Duy Ngọc be the next President of Vietnam? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Trần Thanh Mẫn be the next President of Vietnam? Jun 18 $132 −$132 -100%
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? Mar 15 $1,814 −$1,814 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Mar 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 10AM ET Mar 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3AM ET Feb 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Feb 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Feb 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Feb 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Feb 25 $52 −$51 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Feb 25 $9 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Feb 25 $3 +$6 +191%
XRP Up or Down - February 25, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Feb 25 $10 −$10 -98%
XRP Up or Down - February 25, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Feb 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Feb 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Feb 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Feb 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Feb 25 $11 −$8 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Feb 25 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Feb 25 $3 +$5 +164%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Feb 25 $1 +$9 +898%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Feb 25 $3 +$10 +321%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Feb 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Feb 25 $2 +$31 +1544%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Feb 25 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Feb 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Feb 25 $3 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Feb 25 $13 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Feb 25 $2 +$2 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Feb 25 $28 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Feb 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Feb 24 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Feb 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Feb 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Feb 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Feb 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Feb 24 $10 +$7 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Feb 24 $7 −$3 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Feb 24 $8 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Feb 24 $15 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Feb 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Feb 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Feb 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Feb 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 32¢ $21 2m
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 32¢ $2 16m
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 32¢ $2 19m
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 32¢ $5 19m
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 32¢ $0 19m
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 33¢ $34 29m
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 32¢ $1 41m
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $104 1h
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? BUY No 11¢ $22 99d
Will Nguyễn Duy Ngọc be the next President of Vietnam? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 104d
Will Nguyễn Duy Ngọc be the next President of Vietnam? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 105d
Will Nguyễn Duy Ngọc be the next President of Vietnam? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 105d
Will Nguyễn Duy Ngọc be the next President of Vietnam? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 106d
Will Nguyễn Duy Ngọc be the next President of Vietnam? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 106d
Will Nguyễn Duy Ngọc be the next President of Vietnam? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 106d
Will Nguyễn Duy Ngọc be the next President of Vietnam? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 106d
Will Nguyễn Duy Ngọc be the next President of Vietnam? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 106d
Will Nguyễn Duy Ngọc be the next President of Vietnam? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 106d
Will Nguyễn Duy Ngọc be the next President of Vietnam? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 106d
Will Nguyễn Duy Ngọc be the next President of Vietnam? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 106d
Will Nguyễn Duy Ngọc be the next President of Vietnam? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 106d
Will Phan Văn Giang be the next President of Vietnam? SELL Yes 3¢ $19 106d
Will Phan Văn Giang be the next President of Vietnam? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 106d
Will Phan Văn Giang be the next President of Vietnam? SELL Yes 3¢ $11 106d
Will Phan Văn Giang be the next President of Vietnam? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 107d
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? BUY No 10¢ $39 110d
Will Phan Văn Giang be the next President of Vietnam? SELL Yes 3¢ $39 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $7 115d
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? BUY No 9¢ $38 117d
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? BUY No 9¢ $16 117d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $166.66 · official $166.66 (match) · 507 history records