Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:00:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
AC 0xacbf…be73 world 506 markets active 1h ago coverage 601d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,809 (-16%) realized −$1,777 · open −$32
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate36%178W / 317L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$393now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$365
7 days+$154
14 days+$422
30 days+$420
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% −$167
other 24% −$509
politics 20% −$904
crypto 3% −$157
economics 1% +$3
tech 0% −$10
finance 0% −$20
sports 0% −$1
culture 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -10.9% -19.4% 21% 10% -2.4%
≤30d 45 -5.2% -14.3% 27% 18% +4.5%
≤90d 48 -3.1% -12.4% 27% 19% +5.6%
all 495 -14.8% -22.9% 36% 22% -24.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.9% 22% -24.2%
10% -30.3% 17% -31.5%
15% -37.0% 13% -38.1%
20% -43.2% 11% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$11 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

601d coverage
Net worth$393
Realized−$1,777
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses178 / 317
Open positions11
Markets (closed)495 / 506
History coverage601d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 495 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $173 $164 −$9 (-5%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 58¢ 52¢ $110 $100 −$10 (-9%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 62¢ 56¢ $71 $64 −$7 (-9%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes $53 $50 −$3 (-6%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel in US custody by June 30? Yes $3 $2 −$1 (-50%)
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No 54¢ 57¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 70¢ 72¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $302 +$186 +62%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $120 +$143 +119%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $306 −$37 -12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 16 $100 +$74 +74%
Will Woody Allen be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
US x China Military clash before 2027? Jun 13 $1 $0 -2%
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? Jun 13 $1 $0 -6%
Sudan civil war ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -51%
Sudan civil war ceasefire by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -19%
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Jun 13 $1 $0 -3%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? Jun 13 $1 $0 -2%
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -2%
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? Jun 13 $1 $0 -3%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 13 $1 $0 -5%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 13 $1 $0 -10%
U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -61%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? Jun 13 $1 $0 -16%
Will Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Jun 13 $1 $0 -45%
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? Jun 13 $3 $0 -3%
Will China blockade Taiwan by in 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 -1%
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 30? Jun 13 $10 −$8 -83%
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? Jun 13 $1 $0 -1%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Jun 13 $2 $0 -3%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -78%
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -51%
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? Jun 13 $3 $0 +6%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 13 $1 $0 -0%
China coup attempt before 2027? Jun 13 $1 $0 -1%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? Jun 13 $1 $0 -0%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Jun 13 $11 −$3 -23%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? Jun 13 $10 −$2 -16%
US federally charges Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel? Jun 13 $189 −$77 -41%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $24 −$11 -45%
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? Jun 11 $674 −$63 -9%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 11 $178 −$40 -23%
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 +13%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 09 $1 +$1 +127%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $100 −$52 -52%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $180 +$97 +54%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $400 +$217 +54%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $32 +$5 +17%
Will Kevin Spacey be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? May 20 $29 −$3 -10%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 8? May 08 $21 −$20 -97%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? May 08 $96 −$84 -88%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30? May 04 $62 +$169 +272%
US strikes Iraq by March 31 Mar 07 $3 +$2 +57%
US strike on Mexico by December 31? Mar 07 $28 +$5 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $49 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $160 1h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? BUY Yes $5 19h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? BUY Yes $5 19h
Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel in US custody by June 30? BUY Yes $3 19h
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? BUY No 54¢ $1 19h
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 19h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1 19h
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? BUY No 86¢ $1 19h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $1 19h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $4 19h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $13 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $340 19h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $7 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $263 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $101 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 63¢ $64 45h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 58¢ $100 45h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $174 45h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $167 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $22 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $42 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $147 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $77 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $20 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $97 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $60 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? SELL No 84¢ $1 4d
Will Woody Allen be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? SELL Yes $0 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $392.76 · official $396.73 (match) · 1653 history records