Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:05:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
AC 0xacc2…d1a7 world 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$2 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate67%30W / 15L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$9
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% $0
sports 28% −$2
other 21% +$1
politics 11% −$2
tech 5% +$3
crypto 2% $0
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -7.6% -16.4% 38% 25% -16.4%
≤30d 41 +0.4% -9.2% 66% 51% -4.8%
≤90d 45 -1.3% -10.7% 67% 49% -7.7%
all 45 -1.3% -10.7% 67% 49% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 49% -7.7%
10% -19.2% 36% -16.6%
15% -27.0% 24% -24.6%
20% -34.2% 18% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses30 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage34d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 69¢ 15¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Jun 15 $1 $0 -11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $1 $0 -27%
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by J Jun 15 $1 −$1 -51%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $1 $0 -6%
Will the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) win the most seats in Jun 15 $1 $0 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
US x China tariff agreement by June 30? Jun 15 $1 $0 +24%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 05 $1 +$1 +72%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals - Team Top B Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump kiss by May 31? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chelsea win the 2025-2026 FA Cup? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 03 $1 +$1 +92%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? Jun 01 $1 $0 +20%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 01 $1 +$1 +52%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $2 +$1 +31%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? May 28 $3 +$2 +50%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $1 +$1 +62%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $1 +$1 +83%
Will Tottenham Hotspur place 17th for the 2025-26 English Premier Leag May 25 $1 $0 +7%
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2 May 25 $1 $0 +29%
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? May 25 $3 +$1 +46%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $1 $0 +15%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21? May 22 $2 +$2 +117%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 21 $4 +$1 +26%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $5 +$1 +15%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 19 $1 $0 +3%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $1 +$1 +90%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 19 $1 $0 +11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 19 $1 $0 +27%
PGA Championship: Hole in One? May 18 $1 +$1 +86%
Will Manchester City win the 2025-2026 FA Cup? May 16 $1 $0 +38%
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week? May 16 $1 $0 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $1 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 14 $3 $0 +0%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 14 $1 $0 +4%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 14 $1 $0 +21%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid May 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House SELL Yes 42¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 35¢ $1 1h
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by J SELL No 30¢ $0 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 73¢ $1 2h
Will the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) win the most seats in SELL No 96¢ $1 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $1 2h
US x China tariff agreement by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $1 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 97¢ $1 12d
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by J BUY No 61¢ $1 13d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $1 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 77¢ $1 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? BUY No 58¢ $1 16d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? BUY No 83¢ $1 16d
US x China tariff agreement by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $1 17d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 89¢ $1 17d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Rajasthan Royals 61¢ $1 18d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 39¢ $1 19d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Royal Challengers Bengaluru 54¢ $1 20d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 67¢ $1 20d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? BUY No 52¢ $1 20d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 22d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? BUY No 66¢ $1 22d
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? BUY No 67¢ $3 23d
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21? BUY No 45¢ $2 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $2 24d
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? BUY Yes 66¢ $3 25d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 32¢ $2 25d
Will Aston Villa win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? BUY Yes 79¢ $4 25d
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? BUY No 43¢ $1 25d
Trump kiss by May 31? BUY No 36¢ $1 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.44 · official $0.44 (match) · 92 history records