Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:16:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xacc2…e1d3 sports 45 markets active 9h ago coverage 510d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized +$2 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate32%14W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$3
14 days+$23
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 49% −$3
sports 30% +$6
weather 11% +$2
crypto 5% −$3
other 4% −$1
culture 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +2.2% -7.6% 40% 40% -5.1%
≤30d 12 +13.4% +2.6% 50% 50% -9.5%
≤90d 12 +13.4% +2.6% 50% 50% -9.5%
all 44 +3.4% -6.4% 32% 25% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 25% -9.2%
10% -15.4% 23% -17.9%
15% -23.6% 23% -25.8%
20% -31.1% 18% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$4 · ×2.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

510d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses14 / 30
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage510d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 20? Yes 54¢ 46¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 18? Jun 20 $26 +$17 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? Jun 18 $5 +$12 +245%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 11? Jun 12 $29 +$13 +43%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? Jun 11 $4 +$8 +182%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 30? Jun 04 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on May 26? May 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 26 $27 +$19 +70%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 21? May 22 $8 +$13 +155%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Dec 27 $206 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 27 $216 −$8 -4%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 26 $205 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 26 $209 $0 -0%
Raptors vs. Pacers Nov 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Texas vs. Georgia Nov 17 $17 +$9 +49%
Sharks vs. Flames Nov 14 $14 +$10 +70%
Bucks vs. Mavericks Nov 13 $27 +$19 +72%
Rockets vs. Spurs Nov 09 $19 −$19 -100%
Wild vs. Hurricanes Nov 07 $13 +$7 +54%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 31 $35 −$1 -2%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 30 $13 $0 -1%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 US Open? Aug 30 $22 $0 -2%
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands Aug 30 $26 −$1 -2%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 27 $31 −$1 -2%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Aug 24 $11 $0 -2%
Bitcoin above $112K on August 25? Aug 20 $6 $0 -7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118K and $120K on August 15? Aug 15 $21 −$4 -19%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 02 $25 −$1 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $115K on August 4? Aug 01 $15 +$2 +11%
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 01 $14 $0 -4%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jul 28 $15 −$1 -6%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $19 $0 -2%
Will the Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese Apr 13 $14 $0 -3%
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 03 $5 $0 -3%
Will China unban Bitcoin by March 31? Apr 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Anthony Albanese be the first leader out in 2025? Mar 31 $9 $0 -3%
Will Solana hit $300 by January 31, 2025? Mar 22 $3 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by January 31? Mar 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 27 $3 $0 -0%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? Jan 26 $6 $0 -1%
Will the Chiefs win the AFC Championship? Jan 26 $4 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 20? BUY Yes 54¢ $30 9h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 59¢ $26 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 52¢ $11 6d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 65¢ $12 7d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 11? BUY No 69¢ $29 9d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? BUY Yes 34¢ $4 10d
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $19 21d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on May 26? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 25d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 58¢ $27 26d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 56¢ $26 28d
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 21? BUY Yes 38¢ $8 30d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $206 175d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $206 175d
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $208 175d
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $216 175d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $204 175d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $205 175d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $209 175d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $209 175d
Texas vs. Georgia BUY Georgia 67¢ $17 217d
Raptors vs. Pacers BUY Pacers 31¢ $3 217d
Sharks vs. Flames BUY Flames 59¢ $14 219d
Bucks vs. Mavericks BUY Bucks 58¢ $27 222d
Rockets vs. Spurs BUY Rockets 63¢ $19 224d
Wild vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 65¢ $13 225d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 31¢ $6 292d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 32¢ $6 293d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 68¢ $29 293d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.87 · official $25.96 · 97 history records