Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T12:36:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xacc3…acae sports 283 markets active 7h ago coverage 589d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$102 (-1%) realized −$102 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR66%break-even
Win rate66%186W / 95L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$37
14 days+$35
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$149
other 15% −$41
world 4% −$213
politics 1% −$9
crypto 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +66%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +14.1% +3.2% 71% 71% +4.4%
≤30d 15 -2.6% -11.9% 60% 60% -11.8%
≤90d 135 -37.2% -43.2% 43% 43% -43.7%
all 281 -0.7% -10.2% 66% 66% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 66% -10.6%
10% -18.8% 63% -19.2%
15% -26.6% 46% -27.0%
20% -33.8% 24% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$33 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

589d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized−$102
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses186 / 95
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions2
Markets (closed)281 / 283
History coverage589d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 281 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-4%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 72¢ 74¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $35 +$18 +50%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $35 +$17 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$23 +76%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $35 +$20 +57%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $35 +$9 +25%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $35 −$20 -58%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $35 −$24 -68%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $29 +$27 +93%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$17 +57%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $39 +$8 +21%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $35 −$35 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 01 $30 −$30 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $30 +$18 +60%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 25 $35 +$15 +44%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 22 $30 −$30 -99%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 21 $35 −$35 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $35 +$16 +46%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $35 +$15 +44%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 19 $35 −$35 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 18 $35 −$35 -99%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 18 $35 +$18 +50%
Wild vs. Avalanche May 14 $30 +$15 +50%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights May 13 $30 +$20 +67%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $40 +$11 +27%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $30 +$20 +65%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $35 −$35 -99%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 11 $40 +$11 +27%
76ers vs. Knicks May 11 $40 +$15 +38%
76ers vs. Knicks May 05 $35 +$14 +40%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $41 −$40 -99%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 04 $40 −$40 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 04 $35 +$12 +34%
Magic vs. Pistons May 04 $35 +$12 +34%
Canadiens vs. Lightning May 03 $30 −$30 -99%
Magic vs. Pistons May 03 $35 +$10 +27%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 03 $35 +$10 +29%
Ducks vs. Oilers May 03 $30 +$19 +62%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 30 $35 −$35 -99%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 30 $35 −$35 -99%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 29 $35 +$6 +18%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 28 $35 −$35 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 28 $40 +$9 +23%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 28 $40 +$9 +23%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 28 $35 +$34 +97%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $30 −$30 -98%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 27 $35 +$13 +36%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 24 $35 −$35 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $41 6h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $35 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $35 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $35 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 56¢ $30 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $35 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 73¢ $44 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 33¢ $15 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $35 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $35 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 20¢ $11 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 9d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $35 9d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $29 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 86¢ $47 12d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 13d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $35 14d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $39 14d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $30 23d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 62¢ $30 30d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 54¢ $30 33d
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 66¢ $35 34d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 69¢ $35 34d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 68¢ $35 35d
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche BUY Avalanche 64¢ $35 36d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 69¢ $35 36d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 68¢ $35 37d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 66¢ $35 40d
Wild vs. Avalanche BUY Avalanche 66¢ $30 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.79 · official $74.79 (match) · 578 history records