Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:18:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xacc8…59c5 other 321 markets active 2h ago coverage 368d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$568 (-4%) realized −$496 · open −$72
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate72%220W / 87L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$179now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$23
30 days−$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$275
sports 20% −$222
crypto 8% −$40
world 0% −$12
tech 0% +$1
politics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +2.1% -7.6% 80% 0% -8.0%
≤30d 22 -11.1% -19.6% 68% 9% -26.4%
≤90d 57 -7.7% -16.5% 74% 18% -16.4%
all 307 -3.7% -12.9% 72% 22% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 22% -12.6%
10% -21.2% 12% -21.0%
15% -28.8% 6% -28.6%
20% -35.8% 4% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$12 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

368d coverage
Net worth$179
Realized−$496
Unrealized−$72
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses220 / 87
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions14
Markets (closed)307 / 321
History coverage368d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 307 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 89¢ 79¢ $45 $40 −$5 (-11%)
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 95¢ 94¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Arcium launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 99¢ 98¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Yes 88¢ 92¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 85¢ 78¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Cap FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 88¢ 96¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Arcium FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 97¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? Yes 66¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Concrete FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 94¢ 76¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 50¢ 29¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-42%)
Will STRC market cap hit $12B by June 30? Yes 69¢ 7¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-90%)
Will Tempo launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 70¢ 9¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-87%)
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Yes 78¢ 1¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-99%)
Arcium FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 39¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Surf FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jun 19 $10 +$1 +7%
o1 FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 17 $6 $0 -3%
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $45 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid listed on Binance by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $24 −$24 -99%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $30 −$30 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $10 $0 +0%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 30 $5 −$5 -99%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? May 29 $2 +$6 +299%
APYX FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 29 $10 $0 +4%
XMAQUINA FDV above $40M one day after launch? May 28 $10 +$1 +12%
XMAQUINA FDV above $10M one day after launch? May 28 $30 +$1 +4%
XMAQUINA FDV above $800M one day after launch? May 28 $26 +$1 +3%
XMAQUINA FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 28 $47 +$3 +6%
XMAQUINA FDV above $80M one day after launch? May 28 $48 $0 +1%
XMAQUINA FDV above $60M one day after launch? May 28 $22 −$2 -9%
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 26 $5 $0 +2%
APYX FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 25 $20 +$1 +3%
Will STRC dip to $90 in 2026? May 23 $24 −$14 -61%
Nexus FDV above $800M one day after launch? May 21 $5 $0 +2%
Nexus FDV above $500M one day after launch? May 20 $3 −$1 -36%
Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $10 +$1 +11%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Citrea FDV above $40M one day after launch? May 16 $10 $0 +4%
Will Ashley Barrett die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 06 $1 +$1 +91%
Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 04 $16 +$4 +24%
Billions FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 04 $204 +$19 +9%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 01 $50 −$2 -3%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 01 $80 −$20 -25%
Space FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 30 $10 +$1 +6%
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? Apr 30 $6 $0 +5%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Apr 30 $84 +$2 +2%
Over $8M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 29 $17 −$12 -72%
Over $4M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 29 $39 −$17 -43%
Over $1M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 28 $68 +$1 +1%
Pharos FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 28 $47 +$1 +3%
Over $500k committed to the Pharos public sale? Apr 27 $15 +$3 +18%
Pharos FDV above $50M one day after launch? Apr 26 $48 +$2 +3%
USD.AI FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 24 $12 $0 +1%
USD.AI FDV above $150M one day after launch? Apr 21 $20 $0 +2%
Pharos FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 21 $30 $0 +1%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch? Apr 18 $30 +$7 +22%
Sentio FDV above $20M one day after launch? Apr 15 $128 +$6 +5%
Genius FDV above $80M one day after launch? Apr 15 $16 +$4 +25%
Genius FDV above $50M one day after launch? Apr 14 $20 +$1 +2%
USD.AI FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 11 $8 $0 +4%
Sentio FDV above $50M one day after launch? Apr 04 $58 +$15 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Arcium launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $28 1h
Arcium FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL Yes 99¢ $11 1h
Surf FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL Yes 81¢ $11 1h
o1 FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL No 94¢ $6 2d
o1 FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 96¢ $6 2d
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $45 4d
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 11¢ $3 4d
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $45 4d
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $45 4d
Hyperliquid listed on Binance by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $5 4d
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 50¢ $3 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $24 11d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $30 18d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 64¢ $10 19d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $10 19d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 88¢ $20 20d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 58¢ $5 20d
Hyperliquid listed on Binance by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $5 20d
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $30 20d
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $2 21d
APYX FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 88¢ $11 21d
XMAQUINA FDV above $80M one day after launch? SELL No 78¢ $10 22d
XMAQUINA FDV above $60M one day after launch? SELL No 51¢ $6 22d
XMAQUINA FDV above $80M one day after launch? BUY No 89¢ $8 22d
XMAQUINA FDV above $60M one day after launch? SELL No 71¢ $10 22d
XMAQUINA FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY No 97¢ $27 22d
XMAQUINA FDV above $60M one day after launch? BUY No 75¢ $20 22d
XMAQUINA FDV above $80M one day after launch? BUY No 94¢ $20 22d
XMAQUINA FDV above $80M one day after launch? BUY No 94¢ $20 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $179.26 · official $179.07 (match) · 1055 history records