Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:37:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AC 0xacca…34bf crypto 990 markets active 0h ago coverage 49d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 49d only
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,103 (-6%) realized −$1,103 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate63%620W / 369L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day54.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$8
14 days−$236
30 days−$582
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,195
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 388 -0.4% -9.9% 79% 71% -10.0%
≤30d 455 -2.6% -11.9% 74% 67% -25.9%
≤90d 989 -5.9% -14.9% 63% 55% -15.1%
all 989 -5.9% -14.9% 63% 55% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.9% 55% -15.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.0% 37% -23.2%
15% -30.4% 22% -30.6%
20% -37.3% 17% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$14 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$1,103
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses620 / 369
Open positions1
Markets (closed)989 / 990
History coverage49d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day54.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 989 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Down 79¢ 82¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 179 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$2 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$2 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$2 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$2 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$2 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$2 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$3 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$2 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$2 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$2 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.12 · official $3.88 (match) · 3500 history records