Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:00:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xacd5…8088 crypto 243 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$193 (-7%) realized −$192 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate56%133W / 106L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day34.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days+$51
14 days−$244
30 days−$244
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$125
sports 22% −$47
other 17% −$81
world 3% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -7.2% -16.1% 56% 51% +3.0%
≤30d 239 -11.9% -20.3% 56% 40% -18.1%
≤90d 239 -11.9% -20.3% 56% 40% -18.1%
all 239 -11.9% -20.3% 56% 40% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.3% 40% -18.1%
10% ← realistic here -27.9% 29% -25.9%
15% -34.9% 21% -33.1%
20% -41.3% 15% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$192
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses133 / 106
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)239 / 243
History coverage14d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day34.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 239 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 30¢ 37¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+23%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 24¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+20%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $60 +$15 +26%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Draw at halftime? Jun 28 $36 +$6 +17%
Panama vs. England: Draw at halftime? Jun 27 $5 +$7 +137%
Croatia to score first vs. Ghana? Jun 27 $5 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO - Map 1 Winner Jun 27 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $5 +$6 +124%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 27 $1 +$1 +92%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $10 +$2 +24%
France leading at halftime? Jun 26 $10 +$4 +38%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$5 +93%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 24 $1 +$2 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 24 $6 −$5 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 24 $7 $0 -4%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 24 $5 +$3 +60%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$2 +24%
Colombia to score first vs. DR Congo? Jun 24 $5 +$2 +46%
England to score first vs. Ghana? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +7%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $5 +$3 +58%
Panama vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $5 +$3 +50%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 +$4 +22%
Spain to win the second half? Jun 21 $58 +$9 +16%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 21 $20 +$22 +109%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $20 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 20 $7 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +22%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $27 −$22 -80%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +5%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Total Corners Odd or Even? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $76 13m
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 79¢ $60 38m
Colombia vs. Portugal: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $42 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 84¢ $36 1h
Panama vs. England: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 4h
Croatia to score first vs. Ghana? SELL Yes 99¢ $8 4h
Panama vs. England: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 4h
Croatia to score first vs. Ghana? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 5h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO - Map 1 Winner SELL ECHO 99¢ $22 6h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO - Map 1 Winner BUY ECHO 88¢ $20 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 21h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 21h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 33¢ $4 21h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 30h
France leading at halftime? SELL Yes 88¢ $14 30h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 30h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.18 · official $14.18 (match) · 614 history records