Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:30:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
AC 0xacd7…edb2 other 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$119 (+35%) realized +$119 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$62
sports 24% −$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -11.6% -20.0% 67% 67% -15.7%
≤30d 3 -11.6% -20.0% 67% 67% -15.7%
≤90d 3 -11.6% -20.0% 67% 67% -15.7%
all 3 -11.6% -20.0% 67% 67% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 67% -15.7%
10% -27.7% 33% -23.8%
15% -34.7% 33% -31.2%
20% -41.1% 0% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$80 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$119
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage1d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $159 +$15 +9%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $82 −$80 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$47 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 49m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $8 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 76¢ $74 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $51 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 12¢ $117 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 78¢ $75 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 16¢ $49 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $26 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 15 history records