Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:38:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AC 0xace0…6ccd sports 1459 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 136d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,763 (-1%) realized −$2,775 · open +$12
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate96%1406W / 51L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$230per market
Trades / day16.4pace
Fees−$59est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1,232now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$89
7 days−$1,218
14 days−$1,059
30 days−$1,461
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$2,211
other 31% −$720
weather 16% +$137
politics 1% +$11
crypto 1% −$152
world 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +1.7% -8.0% 97% 3% -12.5%
≤30d 138 +1.2% -8.5% 98% 6% -11.1%
≤90d 1081 +0.2% -9.4% 97% 2% -9.8%
all 1457 -0.0% -9.5% 96% 2% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 2% -10.3%
10% -18.2% 1% -18.9%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.7%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$127 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$1,232
Realized−$2,775
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses1406 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1457 / 1459
History coverage136d ⚠
Avg bet$230
Trades / day16.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1457 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 99¢ 100¢ $1,101 $1,113 +$11 (+1%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ 100¢ $119 $119 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Jun 18 $762 +$24 +3%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $671 +$19 +3%
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) Jun 17 $1,787 +$18 +1%
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,777 +$9 +0%
Spread: Jordan (-2.5) Jun 17 $501 +$2 +0%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $1,765 +$5 +0%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $495 +$6 +1%
Exact Score: France 0 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $1,758 +$7 +0%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 16 $1,751 +$7 +0%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 3 Egypt? Jun 15 $1,744 +$7 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1,001 +$9 +1%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1,748 −$1,747 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $401 +$27 +7%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $1,076 +$3 +0%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1,000 +$4 +0%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $476 +$24 +5%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1,294 +$26 +2%
EC Juventude leading at halftime? Jun 14 $23 $0 +1%
EC Juventude vs. AA Ponte Preta: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $17 $0 +2%
AA Ponte Preta leading at halftime? Jun 14 $36 $0 +1%
Exact Score: EC Juventude 0 - 3 AA Ponte Preta? Jun 14 $28 $0 +1%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $154 +$3 +2%
Exact Score: Haiti 3 - 0 Scotland? Jun 14 $1,372 +$11 +1%
Spread: Haiti (-2.5) Jun 14 $1,000 +$10 +1%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $1,001 +$41 +4%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $1,262 +$64 +5%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $1,000 +$8 +1%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $998 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $15 +$15 +96%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $1,600 +$8 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $1,616 +$6 +0%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $501 +$25 +5%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2,001 +$18 +1%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) Jun 12 $987 +$15 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1,258 +$83 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $2,214 +$21 +1%
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $67 +$4 +5%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 11 $101 +$1 +1%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $100 +$2 +2%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $200 +$3 +2%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $24 $0 +2%
LoL: FENNEL vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $599 +$1 +0%
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 10+ times during the next Prime Ministe Jun 10 $625 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $58 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1,719 +$4 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $2,022 +$59 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $156 +$11 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $144 +$7 +5%
Will France vs. Northern Ireland end in a draw? Jun 08 $949 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $202 +$26 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $20 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $10 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $39 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $50 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 99¢ $18 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 99¢ $22 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $785 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 99¢ $8 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 99¢ $110 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 99¢ $39 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 99¢ $10 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 99¢ $48 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 99¢ $296 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 99¢ $552 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner SELL Gentle Mates 100¢ $690 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 97¢ $117 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 97¢ $222 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 97¢ $331 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 97¢ $80 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 97¢ $2 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 97¢ $39 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 97¢ $48 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 97¢ $25 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 97¢ $15 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 97¢ $552 2h
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) BUY England 99¢ $1,787 18h
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) BUY Portugal 99¢ $593 20h
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) BUY Portugal 100¢ $1,184 20h
Spread: Jordan (-2.5) BUY Austria 100¢ $501 35h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $501 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,231.60 · official $1,231.60 (match) · 3500 history records