Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:33:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AC 0xace3…f9b0 world 79 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$33 (+2%) realized +$66 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate66%44W / 23L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$191now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$21
14 days+$62
30 days+$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% +$32
other 17% +$4
sports 15% +$7
politics 14% +$11
tech 8% −$18
finance 4% +$8
culture 2% −$6
crypto 1% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +9.2% -1.2% 61% 39% -6.5%
≤30d 67 +5.2% -4.8% 66% 31% -5.4%
≤90d 67 +5.2% -4.8% 66% 31% -5.4%
all 67 +5.2% -4.8% 66% 31% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 31% -5.4%
10% -13.9% 19% -14.4%
15% -22.2% 10% -22.7%
20% -29.8% 6% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$191
Realized+$66
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses44 / 23
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions12
Markets (closed)67 / 79
History coverage26d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alien arrests in New York hit 4800+ by June 30? No 89¢ 90¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+1%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 91¢ 93¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+2%)
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 90¢ $22 $23 +$1 (+5%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 84¢ 89¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+6%)
Will Alien arrests in New York hit 4900+ by June 30? No 85¢ 94¢ $17 $19 +$2 (+10%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? No 79¢ 74¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-7%)
FDA approves Arcutis' Zoryve cream? Yes 81¢ 88¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+8%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $11 +$0 (+4%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 60¢ 50¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-17%)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 55¢ 36¢ $11 $7 −$4 (-35%)
FDA approves Merck's Welireg + Keytruda or Keytruda Qlex? Yes 79¢ 84¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 14 $7 +$18 +243%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $11 +$7 +62%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $19 +$10 +55%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $22 −$7 -31%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $41 +$3 +8%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $48 +$2 +4%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $4 $0 +3%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $17 +$3 +15%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $24 −$2 -9%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $25 +$5 +22%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $14 +$6 +41%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $22 −$9 -41%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 13 $28 +$2 +6%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 13 $22 −$22 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $24 +$6 +26%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $22 +$8 +36%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Jun 12 $21 −$3 -13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $6 $0 -7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $11 +$4 +33%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $37 +$6 +17%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $29 −$5 -17%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 11 $23 +$2 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $23 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 09 $5 −$1 -22%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $28 $0 -1%
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 09 $78 +$3 +4%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $17 +$3 +16%
Florentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $83 +$8 +9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 07 $14 +$2 +16%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $29 −$17 -60%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $26 +$2 +6%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $27 +$6 +23%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 06 $16 +$4 +25%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 05 $16 +$3 +18%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $8 −$1 -17%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 04 $8 −$1 -18%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 03 $30 +$5 +17%
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 03 $27 +$2 +8%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $21 +$28 +134%
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 01 $15 +$1 +6%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $32 +$3 +10%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? May 31 $20 +$1 +6%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 2 May 31 $28 −$6 -21%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 30 $63 +$4 +6%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 30 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 30 $28 −$1 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 29 $24 +$1 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 29 $36 +$2 +5%
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in May? May 28 $1 −$1 -43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 21m
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 21m
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 40m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 84¢ $25 48m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $17 53m
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $30 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $19 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 51¢ $15 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 51¢ $0 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $10 2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $12 2h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Germany 89¢ $44 4h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 75¢ $15 5h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 87¢ $26 6h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $21 14h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 36¢ $4 14h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 73¢ $20 20h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 81¢ $2 20h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $17 21h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $24 21h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $2 22h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $16 22h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $30 22h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $20 22h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 35¢ $4 25h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $11 25h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $14 25h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 SELL Over 43¢ $13 25h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 BUY Over 82¢ $25 27h
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri BUY Yes 55¢ $11 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $190.67 · official $190.67 (match) · 256 history records