Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:33:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xace5…7083 sports 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$61 (+7%) realized +$63 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate29%7W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$117
7 days+$116
14 days+$107
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$126
other 16% −$76
world 14% −$1
crypto 7% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -7.9% -16.7% 40% 30% +14.2%
≤30d 24 -17.3% -25.2% 29% 21% -4.4%
≤90d 24 -17.3% -25.2% 29% 21% -4.4%
all 24 -17.3% -25.2% 29% 21% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.2% 21% -4.4%
10% -32.3% 21% -13.5%
15% -38.9% 17% -21.9%
20% -44.9% 17% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$14 · ×2.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized+$63
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses7 / 17
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions9
Markets (closed)24 / 32
History coverage26d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? No 58¢ 57¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? No 43¢ 42¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 57¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 55¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Netherlands 61¢ 60¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Japan to score first vs. Brazil? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Morocco to score first vs. Netherlands? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 77¢ 84¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $43 +$49 +114%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 28 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $172 +$130 +76%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $92 +$32 +35%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? Jun 27 $20 $0 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 27 $15 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? Jun 23 $5 $0 -2%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? Jun 17 $10 $0 -2%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -6%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $26 +$38 +149%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 06 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$3 -57%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $10 +$7 +65%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 05 $20 $0 +0%
BNB Up or Down - June 3, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$1 -29%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 03 $10 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Morocco to score first vs. Netherlands? BUY Yes 39¢ $15 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $26 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Netherlands 61¢ $20 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 58¢ $41 1h
Japan to score first vs. Brazil? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $26 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 43¢ $41 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 18¢ $21 2h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $92 29h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 70¢ $59 31h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $43 31h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $46 33h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 45¢ $43 33h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $46 33h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $46 34h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $62 34h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 34h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $43 34h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $53 34h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $57 34h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? SELL No 96¢ $5 45h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $6 45h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? BUY No 96¢ $5 45h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 16¢ $10 6d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? SELL No 98¢ $5 6d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? SELL No 96¢ $5 6d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 78¢ $0 8d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? BUY No 98¢ $5 8d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 78¢ $0 8d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 78¢ $2 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $197.91 · official $197.83 (match) · 107 history records