Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:43:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
AC 0xace6…45c0 other 44 markets active 3h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,100 (-14%) realized −$4,461 · open −$639
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate37%14W / 24L
Whale WR30%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$817per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$51est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$1,928now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,496
7 days−$4,864
14 days−$4,864
30 days−$4,343
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$3,873
politics 31% +$1,202
world 7% −$2,474
sports 7% −$387
crypto 1% −$300
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-29.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -21.5% -28.9% 36% 32% -33.9%
≤30d 26 -10.6% -19.1% 38% 35% -31.0%
≤90d 28 -8.5% -17.2% 43% 39% -19.1%
all 38 -21.8% -29.3% 37% 34% -23.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.3% 34% -23.7%
10% -36.0% 32% -31.0%
15% -42.2% 29% -37.6%
20% -47.9% 24% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 30% (≥$973) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -16% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$507 vs −$512 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$1,928
Realized−$4,461
Unrealized−$639
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses14 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)30%
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions6
Markets (closed)38 / 44
History coverage149d
Avg bet$817
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 46¢ $1,368 $826 −$542 (-40%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $300 $284 −$16 (-5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $300 $237 −$63 (-21%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $200 $217 +$17 (+9%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $200 $211 +$11 (+6%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $200 $152 −$48 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $973 +$404 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $629 +$343 +55%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $307 +$2 +1%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $768 −$449 -58%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $305 +$463 +152%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,508 −$2,474 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,010 −$647 -64%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $508 −$138 -27%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,013 −$1,000 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $608 −$63 -10%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,010 −$237 -24%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -98%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $1,211 −$1,200 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,826 +$1,662 +91%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $306 −$128 -42%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $305 −$300 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $607 +$346 +57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $506 −$500 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,006 −$1,000 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $610 +$693 +114%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $506 −$500 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $507 −$417 -82%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $306 +$367 +120%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $504 +$209 +41%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 22 $200 +$521 +261%
Will Freiburg win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 13 $100 +$27 +27%
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Apr 07 $10,995 +$1,202 +11%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-25? Jan 25 $358 −$358 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-01-25? Jan 25 $245 −$245 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-01-24? Jan 24 $110 −$110 -100%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-01-22? Jan 23 $295 +$425 +144%
Will Lyon win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Jan 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Nott'm Forest win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Jan 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Porto win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Jan 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Real Betis win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Jan 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-21? Jan 22 $669 +$433 +65%
Will Phan Van Giang be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Com Jan 19 $1,823 −$1,823 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1,377 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $973 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $629 18h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $309 21h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 22¢ $319 21h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $768 39h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $768 39h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $735 42h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 24¢ $364 42h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 34¢ $370 42h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $1,064 43h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $505 44h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $203 45h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $305 45h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $507 45h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $505 45h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $508 45h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $203 47h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 52¢ $773 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 63¢ $506 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 70¢ $504 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 55¢ $304 2d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $304 2d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $203 2d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 68¢ $505 2d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 76¢ $504 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $203 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $506 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,488 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,928.46 · official $1,948.26 · 124 history records