Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:05:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xace6…7477 crypto 958 markets active 0h ago coverage 44d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 44d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (64 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$853 (+2%) realized +$853 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate54%692W / 596L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day64.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 44d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$729
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (64 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-26.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 414 -67.6% -70.7% 19% 8% -54.6%
≤30d 436 -64.4% -67.8% 22% 9% -50.6%
≤90d 1288 -19.2% -26.9% 54% 31% -15.7%
all 1288 -19.2% -26.9% 54% 31% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover64.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.9% 31% -15.7%
10% ← realistic here -33.9% 24% -23.8%
15% -40.3% 19% -31.1%
20% -46.2% 13% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -44% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$23 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$853
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses692 / 596
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1288 / 958
History coverage44d ⚠
Avg bet$53
Trades / day64.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1288 Trades
no open positions (483 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 23 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 23 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 23 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 23 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 23 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 23 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 23 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 23 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 23 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 23 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 23 $8 −$9 -113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 23 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 23 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 23 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 23 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $59 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $69 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $49 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $42 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $48 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $58 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $22 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $59 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $37 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $12 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $69 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $36 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $12 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $14 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records