Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:24:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
AC 0xace6…a13d sports 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$220 (+12%) realized +$225 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%32W / 25L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day12.9pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$134
14 days+$185
30 days+$185
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$10
crypto 11% +$190
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +3.4% -6.5% 48% 48% -0.2%
≤30d 57 +15.7% +4.7% 56% 56% +0.4%
≤90d 57 +15.7% +4.7% 56% 56% +0.4%
all 57 +15.7% +4.7% 56% 56% +0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.7% 56% +0.4%
10% -5.3% 54% -9.2%
15% -14.5% 53% -18.0%
20% -22.9% 47% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +47% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$27 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$225
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses32 / 25
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions3
Markets (closed)57 / 60
History coverage11d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day12.9
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) FURIA 44¢ 46¢ $44 $45 +$1 (+3%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 45¢ $40 $40 +$1 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BetBoom Team 42¢ 26¢ $21 $13 −$8 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 16 $71 −$71 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $152 −$152 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $195 +$190 +98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $41 +$56 +137%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $36 −$36 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $65 +$64 +98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $31 +$19 +60%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $18 +$22 +120%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $21 −$1 -6%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $68 +$69 +102%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $51 +$29 +57%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) Jun 13 $10 +$21 +203%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $61 +$74 +121%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $13 +$17 +126%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $34 −$34 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $36 +$19 +52%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $32 +$4 +12%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $10 +$20 +209%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $14 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $17 +$12 +72%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 12 $12 +$8 +62%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $7 −$2 -24%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $7 −$2 -32%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Jun 11 $11 +$17 +156%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $20 +$13 +64%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $18 +$10 +55%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 11 $10 +$10 +95%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 +$10 +103%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $19 +$24 +126%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) Jun 09 $25 +$27 +107%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $29 −$29 -100%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) Jun 08 $15 +$15 +103%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $20 +$10 +48%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 08 $33 +$18 +57%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $18 +$6 +33%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $28 +$12 +42%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $14 +$11 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $37 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1 32h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1 35h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1 2d
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY FURIA 44¢ $43 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 42¢ $21 2d
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY FURIA 44¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $386 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $195 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 99¢ $97 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $51 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 67¢ $101 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $71 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 41¢ $41 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $129 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 26¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 99¢ $49 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 34¢ $31 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 10¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 31¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 47¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 99¢ $40 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $20 4d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) SELL Vitality 51¢ $20 4d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 61¢ $31 4d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $14 4d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY Vitality 53¢ $21 4d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 34¢ $7 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 51¢ $21 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.24 · official $101.74 · 172 history records