Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:34:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AC 0xacea…8b97 world 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 1237d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable P/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$3,643 (+7%) realized +$2,538 · open +$1,105
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate74%35W / 12L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$723per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$20,116now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1237d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% +$4,588
politics 18% +$2,583
other 17% +$629
tech 3% +$616
finance 2% −$332
sports 0% −$224
crypto 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -34.3% -40.6% 50% 14% -28.9%
≤30d 24 +3.0% -6.8% 71% 33% +7.2%
≤90d 45 +13.2% +2.5% 76% 53% +6.7%
all 47 +12.8% +2.0% 74% 53% +12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.0% 53% +12.0%
10% -7.7% 47% +1.3%
15% -16.6% 38% -8.5%
20% -24.8% 30% -17.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$729) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +23% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$346 vs −$444 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.27 per $1 lost it wins $2.27
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1237d coverage
Net worth$20,116
Realized+$2,538
Unrealized+$1,105
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses35 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions29
Markets (closed)47 / 76
History coverage1237d
Avg bet$723
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No 75¢ 82¢ $6,497 $7,154 +$657 (+10%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 13¢ 19¢ $2,188 $3,299 +$1,112 (+51%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? No 19¢ 48¢ $933 $2,375 +$1,442 (+154%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 13¢ $2,937 $1,851 −$1,086 (-37%)
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? No 58¢ 47¢ $1,103 $896 −$207 (-19%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $840 $780 −$60 (-7%)
Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes 14¢ 20¢ $441 $635 +$194 (+44%)
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes 20¢ 27¢ $334 $454 +$120 (+36%)
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $342 $346 +$4 (+1%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 36¢ 33¢ $361 $332 −$30 (-8%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $331 $286 −$46 (-14%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $276 $279 +$3 (+1%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 27¢ 38¢ $136 $188 +$52 (+38%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 34¢ 19¢ $277 $156 −$121 (-44%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 37¢ 14¢ $370 $145 −$225 (-61%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 63¢ 56¢ $158 $141 −$16 (-10%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $132 $136 +$4 (+3%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? No 82¢ 61¢ $164 $122 −$42 (-26%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $126 $122 −$4 (-3%)
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $83 $97 +$15 (+18%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 10¢ $196 $81 −$115 (-59%)
Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes 24¢ 28¢ $67 $80 +$13 (+19%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? No 70¢ 12¢ $211 $38 −$173 (-82%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $34 $32 −$3 (-8%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes $90 $29 −$60 (-67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary e Jun 16 $270 +$8 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $765 −$345 -45%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 16 $760 +$33 +4%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 16 $470 +$26 +6%
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Jun 15 $467 +$21 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $6,129 +$65 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $1,901 −$1,541 -81%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $285 +$215 +75%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $1,080 +$1,146 +106%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $230 −$230 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $300 −$300 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 11 $1,315 −$1,315 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $588 +$725 +123%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,083 +$316 +29%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $5,326 +$2,626 +49%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 31 $710 +$1,090 +154%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $730 +$1,210 +166%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $255 +$52 +20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $1,977 +$109 +6%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? May 22 $450 +$5 +1%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele May 21 $546 +$21 +4%
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? May 19 $529 +$5 +1%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 16 $487 −$486 -100%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 16 $144 +$56 +39%
Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping? May 16 $168 +$32 +19%
Will Trump say "Hong Kong" during events with Xi Jinping? May 16 $168 +$32 +19%
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? May 16 $186 +$114 +61%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 12 $168 +$286 +170%
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? May 05 $40 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? May 02 $112 +$88 +79%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? May 02 $94 +$106 +113%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April? May 02 $129 +$71 +55%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? May 02 $179 +$121 +68%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? May 02 $215 +$101 +47%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? Apr 28 $7 +$2 +28%
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormu Apr 27 $50 +$26 +53%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Apr 26 $44 +$17 +39%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 24 $84 −$84 -100%
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, Apr 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 18 $140 −$140 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 18 $838 +$194 +23%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 17 $160 +$40 +25%
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 9, 2026? Apr 11 $19 +$16 +85%
[Single Market] Will Donald J. Trump win the U.S. 2024 Republican pres Feb 26 $729 −$729 -100%
Will Erdoğan win the 2023 Turkish presidential election? May 30 $3,000 +$3,122 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $11 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $19 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $532 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $805 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $183 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $17 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 11¢ $886 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 11¢ $296 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No $7 5h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 5h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 5h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 5h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 5h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 5h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 5h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 5h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 5h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 5h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 5h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 5h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 5h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 5h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 5h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 5h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 5h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $252 5h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $264 5h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20,115.63 · official $20,116.06 (match) · 856 history records