Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:13:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
AC 0xacec…d87b other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$112 (+23%) realized +$111 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$152now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% +$109
sports 18% $0
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +15.6% +4.6% 62% 62% +23.4%
≤30d 8 +15.6% +4.6% 62% 62% +23.4%
≤90d 8 +15.6% +4.6% 62% 62% +23.4%
all 8 +15.6% +4.6% 62% 62% +23.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.6% 62% +23.4%
10% -5.4% 62% +11.6%
15% -14.5% 62% +0.8%
20% -22.9% 25% -9.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$8 · ×3.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.69 per $1 lost it wins $5.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$152
Realized+$111
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)8 / 11
History coverage4d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $75 $76 +$1 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 59¢ 60¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Paper Rex 66¢ 66¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $76 +$36 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 20 $2 +$1 +44%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $84 +$42 +50%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $1 −$1 -58%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$33 +65%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $31 +$20 +64%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $49 −$22 -44%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $27 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Paper Rex 65¢ $9 37m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 66¢ $35 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $76 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $26 12h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $51 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $2 13h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $125 15h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score SELL No 19¢ $0 16h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY No 43¢ $1 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $84 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 40h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $51 40h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $31 43h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $26 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 70¢ $26 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $27 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 91¢ $27 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $23 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.03 · official $151.63 (match) · 22 history records