Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:14:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AC 0xaced…e23a sports 291 markets active 1h ago coverage 182d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,192 (+4%) realized +$1,152 · open +$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate49%138W / 144L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$80est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1,016now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$152
7 days+$538
14 days+$2,034
30 days+$1,938
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$2,080
other 34% +$3,110
crypto 8% −$32
world 2% +$121
economics 1% −$124
culture 0% −$6
politics 0% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -8.2% -16.9% 61% 58% -4.1%
≤30d 59 +1.3% -8.4% 58% 56% +2.7%
≤90d 173 -24.6% -31.8% 39% 38% -13.9%
all 282 -4.2% -13.3% 49% 45% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 45% -6.8%
10% -21.6% 38% -15.7%
15% -29.2% 32% -23.8%
20% -36.1% 24% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$71 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

182d coverage
Net worth$1,016
Realized+$1,152
Unrealized+$40
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses138 / 144
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$80
Open positions9
Markets (closed)282 / 291
History coverage182d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 282 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 67¢ 64¢ $196 $189 −$7 (-4%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $96 $161 +$65 (+67%)
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Over 75¢ 74¢ $98 $98 −$1 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $98 $97 −$1 (-1%)
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Over 76¢ 74¢ $98 $96 −$2 (-2%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $97 $95 −$2 (-2%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $97 $94 −$3 (-3%)
Spread: France (-2.5) France 57¢ 55¢ $98 $93 −$4 (-4%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Over 53¢ 50¢ $98 $93 −$5 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $192 +$179 +93%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $99 +$20 +20%
Map Handicap: FAL (-2.5) vs FURIA (+2.5) Jun 21 $49 +$45 +91%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) Jun 21 $198 +$38 +19%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $198 +$64 +32%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $198 −$196 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $198 −$196 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $99 +$54 +55%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $49 −$31 -63%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $99 +$47 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,055 +$134 +13%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $99 +$61 +62%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $198 +$21 +11%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $198 +$9 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$23 +46%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $347 +$216 +62%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $49 −$48 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $25 −$14 -56%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $99 +$85 +86%
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Ekaterine Gorgodze Jun 19 $25 +$40 +163%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $148 −$146 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $99 +$29 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $198 +$110 +55%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $396 +$42 +11%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $297 −$295 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $297 +$91 +30%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $297 +$117 +40%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $297 −$295 -99%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $49 −$48 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $990 +$694 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $322 −$318 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $346 −$195 -56%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,089 +$439 +40%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $495 +$136 +28%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $248 −$245 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $99 −$98 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$24 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $50 +$13 +26%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $148 −$146 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $297 +$178 +60%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $99 +$222 +224%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $297 −$292 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $99 −$68 -69%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $396 +$320 +81%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $99 −$97 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $198 −$197 -100%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $99 +$411 +415%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,139 +$225 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $99 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $99 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $99 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $99 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $198 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $99 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 30¢ $99 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 16¢ $99 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 99¢ $371 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 31¢ $44 4h
Map Handicap: FAL (-2.5) vs FURIA (+2.5) SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $95 12h
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $236 12h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $262 12h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $149 12h
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 83¢ $198 13h
Map Handicap: FAL (-2.5) vs FURIA (+2.5) BUY Team Falcons 51¢ $49 13h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 82¢ $99 13h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $198 13h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $198 13h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $119 13h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 69¢ $99 14h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $99 14h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 28h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 3¢ $18 28h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 7¢ $25 28h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 10¢ $25 28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $99 34h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,189 35h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 93¢ $956 36h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $99 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,015.60 · official $1,015.60 (match) · 738 history records