Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:11:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xacef…5850 world 211 markets active 0h ago coverage 536d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$241 (-5%) realized −$231 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate39%74W / 115L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$43
7 days−$40
14 days−$77
30 days−$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$180
world 18% −$33
politics 17% −$8
other 5% −$11
tech 1% −$6
finance 0% −$13
crypto 0% +$5
economics 0% +$2
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-27.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -16.8% -24.7% 47% 32% -15.8%
≤30d 104 -21.1% -28.6% 42% 29% -16.6%
≤90d 160 -27.2% -34.1% 40% 24% -24.6%
all 189 -20.2% -27.8% 39% 23% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.8% 23% -13.4%
10% -34.7% 16% -21.7%
15% -41.0% 11% -29.3%
20% -46.8% 10% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

536d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$231
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses74 / 115
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions22
Markets (closed)189 / 211
History coverage536d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 189 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 71¢ 70¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? No 70¢ 66¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? Yes 39¢ 35¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-10%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? No 23¢ 15¢ $7 $4 −$2 (-36%)
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? Yes 34¢ 32¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-13%)
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$2 (+150%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 16¢ 14¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-7%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 31¢ 22¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-27%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+22%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 53¢ 18¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-67%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Yes 11¢ 3¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-69%)
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? No 26¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-97%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -24%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $4 +$1 +24%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $8 −$7 -98%
Will Taylor Hall win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 15 $4 +$3 +84%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 15 $16 −$6 -37%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Paris Gentle Mates (BO5) - Call of Du Jun 15 $2 $0 +21%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +52%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $16 +$9 +58%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 14 $6 +$2 +38%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -99%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $6 +$2 +42%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $7 +$3 +41%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 $0 -2%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $6 +$3 +54%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $6 −$2 -34%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +20%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $5 +$5 +97%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $8 +$1 +12%
Set Handicap: Shevchenko (-1.5) vs Sachko (+1.5) Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -10%
Will a player representing Brazil be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI Jun 11 $1 $0 +14%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? Jun 11 $1 $0 +9%
Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026? Jun 11 $4 $0 -5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 11 $22 −$5 -22%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $16 −$3 -20%
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $6 −$1 -10%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $6 −$5 -84%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -20%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 11 $9 −$4 -44%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $6 $0 -6%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $18 +$5 +28%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $1 $0 +27%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Jun 10 $3 $0 -14%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 10 $5 $0 +6%
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? Jun 10 $6 +$1 +26%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 10 $7 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 10 $14 +$10 +69%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 10 $6 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $2 20m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? SELL No 10¢ $0 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? SELL No 10¢ $1 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? SELL No 10¢ $1 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? SELL No 10¢ $2 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $3 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $4 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY No 18¢ $1 3h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 40¢ $1 3h
Will Taylor Hall win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 4h
Will Taylor Hall win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 4h
Will Taylor Hall win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 4h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 64¢ $7 4h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 4h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 5h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 34¢ $1 5h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 5h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 36¢ $2 5h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 5h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 6h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 42¢ $1 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $5 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $9 6h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $1 7h
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 7h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 7h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY No 13¢ $1 7h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $2 7h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $1 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.36 · official $59.36 (match) · 1009 history records