Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:28:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
AC 0xacf1…27da crypto 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$24 (-1%) realized −$42 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate70%16W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$155now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$55
7 days+$136
14 days+$313
30 days+$313
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% +$90
sports 9% +$208
other 6% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)+1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +7.4% -2.9% 71% 71% -3.4%
≤30d 23 +12.0% +1.4% 70% 70% +3.5%
≤90d 23 +12.0% +1.4% 70% 70% +3.5%
all 23 +12.0% +1.4% 70% 70% +3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.4% 70% +3.5%
10% -8.3% 61% -6.4%
15% -17.2% 57% -15.4%
20% -25.3% 26% -23.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$75 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$155
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses16 / 7
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)23 / 26
History coverage11d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 60¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+14%)
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 61¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+11%)
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 80¢ $37 $43 +$6 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 22 $144 +$56 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 22 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 22 $130 +$70 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 22 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 22 $135 +$65 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 22 $61 +$39 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 22 $114 +$86 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 22 $154 +$46 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 22 $118 +$50 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 22 $155 −$144 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 22 $313 −$263 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 22 $67 +$33 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 22 $85 +$65 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 22 $83 +$17 +20%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $37 +$31 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $28 +$12 +43%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $54 +$23 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $98 +$42 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $101 +$22 +21%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $137 +$181 +132%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $41 −$4 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $11 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $12 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $20 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $22 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $20 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $9 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $6 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $28 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $12 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $26 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $20 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $8 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $18 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $20 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $18 41m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $155.06 · official $155.06 (match) · 145 history records