trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | +63.0% | +47.5% | 57% | 57% | +24.9% |
| ≤30d | 14 | +31.3% | +18.8% | 36% | 36% | -8.8% |
| ≤90d | 21 | +2.2% | -7.5% | 33% | 29% | -8.2% |
| all | 21 | +2.2% | -7.5% | 33% | 29% | -8.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -7.5% | 29% | -8.2% |
| 10% | -16.4% | 29% | -17.0% |
| 15% | -24.5% | 29% | -25.0% |
| 20% | -31.9% | 29% | -32.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 12¢ | 12¢ | $100 | $100 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? | Jun 22 | $41 | +$133 | +325% |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? | Jun 21 | $40 | −$40 | -99% |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | Jun 20 | $59 | +$31 | +52% |
| Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? | Jun 20 | $78 | −$77 | -99% |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? | Jun 20 | $45 | +$33 | +73% |
| Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? | Jun 20 | $59 | −$12 | -20% |
| Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? | Jun 16 | $13 | +$39 | +291% |
| Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? | Jun 14 | $13 | −$13 | -97% |
| Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? | Jun 14 | $13 | −$13 | -97% |
| Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? | Jun 13 | $13 | +$79 | +596% |
| Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? | Jun 11 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 11 | $10 | −$10 | -97% |
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? | Jun 09 | $31 | −$29 | -95% |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | May 30 | $110 | −$109 | -98% |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? | May 20 | $2 | −$2 | -97% |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? | May 20 | $2 | −$2 | -97% |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? | May 20 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? | May 03 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? | May 02 | $24 | +$26 | +108% |
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? | Apr 30 | $3 | −$3 | -96% |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? | Apr 30 | $15 | −$14 | -97% |