Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:20:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xacf2…d272 sports 450 markets active 1d ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$461 (-8%) realized −$459 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%188W / 254L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$82est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$168
7 days+$145
14 days−$86
30 days+$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$435
other 12% +$113
world 3% −$188
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +42.2% +28.7% 57% 52% +26.5%
≤30d 166 +17.3% +6.1% 45% 44% -8.6%
≤90d 442 -2.0% -11.4% 43% 42% -18.6%
all 442 -2.0% -11.4% 43% 42% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 42% -18.6%
10% -19.9% 41% -26.4%
15% -27.6% 37% -33.5%
20% -34.7% 33% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$12 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$459
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses188 / 254
Est. fees paid−$82
Open positions7
Markets (closed)442 / 450
History coverage68d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 442 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 52¢ 52¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: England (-1.5) Croatia 71¢ 69¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 217 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$11 +105%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $15 +$19 +124%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$13 +62%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$60 +291%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$66 +325%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$45 +442%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Ilkley: Mark Lajal vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 13 $15 +$11 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$20 +97%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $21 +$9 +44%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Jun 11 $10 $0 -1%
Will Caleb Wilson be the 4th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 11 $10 $0 -2%
Will Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +8%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $43 −$42 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 2 Czechia? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -97%
Ilkley: Yunchaokete Bu vs Chris Rodesch Jun 11 $10 +$5 +52%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 11 $20 +$20 +97%
Modena: Giorgia Pedone vs Mayar Sherif Jun 09 $9 −$9 -98%
Modena: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Xiaodi You Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Francesca Jones Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
HSBC Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Alexandra Eala Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Anna Blinkova Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Ilkley: Mark Lajal vs Michael Zheng Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Ilkley: Luca Nardi vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $51 −$4 -8%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $41 +$2 +4%
HSBC Championships: Qinwen Zheng vs Jaqueline Cristian Jun 08 $30 −$30 -99%
Libema Open: Thijs Boogaard vs Yibing Wu Jun 08 $27 −$26 -99%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Jenson Brooksby Jun 08 $20 −$20 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 08 $20 −$20 -98%
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 08 $20 −$20 -98%
Ilkley: Kyrian Jacquet vs Toby Samuel Jun 08 $20 −$20 -98%
Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 08 $10 +$12 +114%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 05 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 05 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 05 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 05 $20 −$20 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $51 −$50 -98%
Tyler: Adam Walton vs Liam Draxl Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Birmingham: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $21 +$87 +424%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Mananchaya Sawangkaew Jun 05 $10 +$4 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 31h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 31h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 31h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 31h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 31h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 71¢ $10 31h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $10 31h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 48¢ $10 31h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina BUY 18¢ $10 31h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 44¢ $15 2d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 61¢ $20 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 53¢ $20 2d
Ilkley: Mark Lajal vs Yunchaokete Bu BUY Yunchaokete Bu 58¢ $15 4d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 53¢ $15 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 6d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 6d
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? SELL Yes 81¢ $10 6d
Will Caleb Wilson be the 4th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? SELL Yes 71¢ $10 6d
Will Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? SELL Yes 66¢ $11 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 50¢ $43 6d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 2 Czechia? BUY Yes $6 6d
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 6d
Modena: Giorgia Pedone vs Mayar Sherif BUY Giorgia Pedone 19¢ $9 8d
Modena: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Xiaodi You BUY Xiaodi You 25¢ $10 8d
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Francesca Jones BUY Francesca Jones 32¢ $10 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.21 · official $63.21 (match) · 744 history records