Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:55:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AC 0xacf4…20c2 crypto 592 markets active 0h ago coverage 146d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 145d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$14,599 (-17%) realized −$14,624 · open +$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%227W / 452L
Whale WR37%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day22.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 146d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$16,696
sports 2% −$242
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 -51.3% -55.9% 12% 12% -89.5%
≤30d 136 -42.1% -47.6% 18% 18% -77.8%
≤90d 193 -32.9% -39.3% 25% 25% -63.0%
all 679 -18.4% -26.2% 33% 33% -32.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.2% 33% -32.6%
10% ← realistic here -33.2% 32% -39.0%
15% -39.7% 32% -44.9%
20% -45.6% 31% -50.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -70% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 37% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -13% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$136 vs −$120 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$14,624
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses227 / 452
Whale WR (big bets)37%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)679 / 592
History coverage146d ⚠
Avg bet$146
Trades / day22.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 679 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Up 25¢ 50¢ $25 $50 +$25 (+99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 437 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 26 $197 −$197 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 26 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 26 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 26 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 26 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) Jun 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 26 $4 +$7 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 26 $197 −$197 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 26 $39 −$39 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN Freecs - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 26 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 26 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 26 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$14 +274%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 26 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$17 -1373%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 26 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 26 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 26 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$20 -918%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 26 $197 −$197 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$18 -866%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 26 $79 −$79 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 26 $99 −$113 -114%
LoL: MVK Esports vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO3) - LCP Regular Season Jun 26 $9 −$6 -66%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on January 14? Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,700 on January 14? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 26 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 26 $197 −$197 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 26 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 26 $39 −$39 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 26 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 26 $20 −$28 -140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 26 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 26 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 26 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 26 $238 −$238 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 26 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 26 $99 −$99 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $4 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 45h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 46h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 46h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 46h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 46h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $104 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $105 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $104 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $104 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.80 · official $50.80 · 3500 history records