Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:36:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xacf5…8284 world 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 330d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate22%9W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% −$5
other 14% −$1
sports 8% $0
politics 8% −$2
crypto 5% $0
tech 5% $0
economics 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.2% -9.7% 40% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 18 -1.5% -10.9% 28% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 18 -1.5% -10.9% 28% 0% -10.2%
all 41 -0.9% -10.4% 22% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 0% -10.1%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.7%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.6%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

330d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses9 / 32
Open positions2
Markets (closed)41 / 43
History coverage330d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 73¢ 72¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 61¢ 68¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $11 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $39 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $36 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $37 −$1 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $76 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 17 $6 $0 +6%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $51 +$1 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $40 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $44 −$4 -10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $82 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $86 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $4 $0 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $45 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $10 −$2 -18%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $107 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $46 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $13 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $46 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 20 $12 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August? Aug 17 $24 −$3 -11%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 15 $24 −$1 -3%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 11 $37 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 10 $38 $0 +0%
Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on July 25? Aug 10 $63 +$1 +1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 30 $19 $0 +0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 30 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 30 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 29 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 28 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in July? Jul 27 $7 $0 +1%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by July 31? Jul 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 26 $63 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 25 $63 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 25 $69 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $36 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $11 11h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 12h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 12h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 92¢ $40 24h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 90¢ $39 26h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 61¢ $1 32h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $20 43h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 45h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $36 46h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $36 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $1 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $36 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $37 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $28 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $8 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $7 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $7 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $40 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 84¢ $40 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $44 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $32 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $8 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $17 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $24 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.88 · official $36.88 (match) · 134 history records