Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:10:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xacf6…ce9e world 114 markets active 1h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$39 (-7%) realized −$36 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate31%33W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% −$19
politics 13% −$15
other 8% +$3
culture 6% +$26
finance 6% −$6
sports 4% +$1
crypto 1% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -4.8% -13.8% 25% 25% -11.7%
≤30d 14 -11.7% -20.1% 21% 14% -31.3%
≤90d 44 -15.3% -23.4% 23% 16% -9.1%
all 106 -17.0% -24.9% 31% 25% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.9% 25% -11.3%
10% -32.1% 19% -19.8%
15% -38.6% 15% -27.5%
20% -44.6% 13% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×2.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$36
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses33 / 73
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)106 / 114
History coverage140d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No $1 $1 +$0 (+22%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No $3 $1 −$2 (-62%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 65¢ 67¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? No $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? No $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No $1 $1 −$0 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 15 $7 $0 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -56%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -13%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +53%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $15 −$7 -44%
Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027? May 22 $1 +$1 +82%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 21 $1 $0 -21%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $7 −$3 -41%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $5 −$1 -28%
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? May 21 $8 −$2 -30%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 21 $63 −$18 -29%
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? May 17 $21 −$4 -17%
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027? May 17 $2 $0 -24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 17 $6 $0 +8%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? May 07 $1 $0 -38%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $2 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? May 04 $1 $0 -24%
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? May 04 $1 $0 -22%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? May 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? May 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? May 01 $3 +$1 +27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $57 +$25 +45%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Apr 26 $1 $0 -13%
Will Dan Scavino leave the Trump administration before 2027? Apr 26 $1 −$1 -76%
Will Russell Vought leave the Trump administration before 2027? Apr 26 $1 −$1 -79%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 26 $1 −$1 -56%
Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027? Apr 26 $1 $0 -5%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 17? Apr 21 $3 +$2 +61%
QQQ (QQQ) Up or Down on April 13? Apr 17 $5 +$14 +288%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 12 $29 +$21 +72%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 06 $1 $0 -8%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 06 $4 $0 -3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Apr 04 $7 −$2 -30%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? Mar 31 $11 $0 -3%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Mar 31 $7 −$2 -22%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 31 $8 $0 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Mar 31 $5 $0 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 21 $1 −$1 -66%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 21 $1 −$1 -85%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 21 $1 −$1 -88%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 21 $1 −$1 -89%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 21 $3 −$2 -56%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Mar 21 $14 −$2 -17%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 18 $11 −$3 -24%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 16 $6 +$1 +13%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $22 +$23 +106%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Mar 12 $1 $0 +19%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Mar 08 $2 +$3 +140%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Mar 08 $2 +$1 +32%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 06 $1 $0 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY No $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $0 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 65¢ $4 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 SELL No 71¢ $3 1h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 20d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 BUY No 39¢ $1 20d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 65¢ $1 20d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $1 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $1 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 13¢ $5 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 35¢ $8 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $12 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 25¢ $1 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 39¢ $1 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $1 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $1 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $4 25d
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $6 25d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 23¢ $8 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 57¢ $1 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 BUY No 57¢ $1 28d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? BUY No 88¢ $6 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.94 · official $12.94 (match) · 291 history records