Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:37:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
AC 0xacf8…e791 sports 332 markets active 0h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$40,757 (+13%) realized +$40,857 · open −$100
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%150W / 181L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$977per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$6,372est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,384
7 days+$4,000
14 days+$7,729
30 days+$17,800
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$42,211
crypto 3% −$1,695
other 0% +$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +2.3% -7.4% 43% 41% -3.6%
≤30d 154 -3.9% -13.0% 42% 40% -0.9%
≤90d 331 -0.2% -9.7% 45% 44% +2.3%
all 331 -0.2% -9.7% 45% 44% +2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 44% +2.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 44% -7.5%
15% -26.3% 41% -16.4%
20% -33.5% 38% -24.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$1,448) neutral
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,252 vs −$813 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$40,857
Unrealized−$100
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses150 / 181
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$6,372
Open positions1
Markets (closed)331 / 332
History coverage56d
Avg bet$977
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 331 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 132 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $2,742 +$4,155 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 18 $103 +$85 +82%
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 18 $1,395 +$1,269 +91%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Otto Virtanen Jun 18 $1,004 −$982 -98%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Luca Van Assche Jun 18 $931 +$74 +8%
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Dalibor Svrcina Jun 18 $468 −$458 -98%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Jun 17 $935 −$913 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $2,728 −$2,679 -98%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 17 $1,041 +$1,692 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $310 −$300 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $311 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $310 +$279 +90%
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 17 $1,104 −$685 -62%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $960 +$146 +15%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $932 −$916 -98%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 16 $1,284 −$1,255 -98%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 16 $918 −$596 -65%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 16 $3,553 −$2,641 -74%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom Jun 16 $1,727 −$1,700 -98%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $3,059 −$3,000 -98%
Nottingham 2: Roman Safiullin vs August Holmgren Jun 16 $1,973 −$1,934 -98%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $2,047 −$2,000 -98%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $3,664 +$2,217 +60%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $891 +$1,350 +152%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $542 −$532 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $186 +$170 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $182 +$191 +105%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $2,030 −$1,912 -94%
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 16 $324 −$212 -66%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 15 $911 −$590 -65%
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 15 $320 +$594 +185%
Set 1 Winner: Rodriguez vs Ribeiro Jun 15 $396 −$75 -19%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $1,883 −$1,491 -79%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $993 +$641 +64%
Dublin: Alexis Galarneau vs Francesco Maestrelli Jun 15 $1,475 −$1,448 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1,536 +$5,607 +365%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $2,802 +$1,529 +55%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2,547 +$4,203 +165%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $1,530 −$665 -43%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $1,524 +$1,733 +114%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $2,545 +$3,705 +146%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $2,222 +$3,054 +137%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $981 +$1,329 +136%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $915 −$898 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $1,918 −$970 -51%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $894 −$874 -98%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $2,048 −$2,000 -98%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $2,035 −$1,390 -68%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $2,477 −$2,436 -98%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt Jun 12 $2,034 +$2,455 +121%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 9m
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL Chicago White Sox 100¢ $6,897 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 39¢ $2,742 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $188 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 5h
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Manuel La Serna SELL Conner Huertas Del Pino 100¢ $2,664 6h
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Manuel La Serna BUY Conner Huertas Del Pino 52¢ $1,379 7h
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Manuel La Serna BUY Conner Huertas Del Pino 40¢ $15 7h
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Otto Virtanen BUY Billy Harris 26¢ $493 10h
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Otto Virtanen BUY Billy Harris 25¢ $511 10h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Luca Van Assche SELL Marco Cecchinato 41¢ $1,005 10h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Luca Van Assche BUY Marco Cecchinato 39¢ $320 11h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Luca Van Assche BUY Marco Cecchinato 35¢ $612 12h
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Dalibor Svrcina BUY Gonzalo Bueno 28¢ $468 13h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY Chicago Sky 20¢ $935 28h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 39¢ $2,728 32h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng SELL Talia Gibson 99¢ $2,733 32h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Talia Gibson 37¢ $1,041 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $310 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $311 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $590 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $310 35h
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Juan Sebastian Gomez SELL Juan Sebastian Gomez 6¢ $418 35h
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Juan Sebastian Gomez BUY Juan Sebastian Gomez 15¢ $1,104 35h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Learner Tien 43¢ $1,106 35h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 36¢ $960 36h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 40¢ $932 2d
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Toronto Tempo 22¢ $959 2d
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Toronto Tempo 25¢ $325 2d
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi SELL Samuel Heredia 8¢ $321 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $1.02 · 590 history records