Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:38:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
AC 0xacf9…780d politics 166 markets active 2h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$44 (-0%) realized −$52 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate18%30W / 133L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,512per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$929now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$20
14 days−$47
30 days+$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$467
politics 40% −$120
sports 15% +$515
culture 2% −$6
economics 1% −$5
world 1% −$3
crypto 0% +$3
tech 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 54 +8.0% -2.2% 13% 9% -9.4%
≤90d 109 +4.1% -5.8% 10% 6% -9.6%
all 163 +7.5% -2.7% 18% 13% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.7% 13% -9.6%
10% -12.0% 13% -18.2%
15% -20.5% 10% -26.1%
20% -28.3% 10% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,132) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$19 · ×4.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$929
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses30 / 133
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)163 / 166
History coverage129d
Avg bet$1,512
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 163 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 100¢ 100¢ $694 $693 −$0 (-0%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $171 $176 +$5 (+3%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 58¢ 62¢ $55 $59 +$3 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $5,152 −$6 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $878 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $894 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $561 −$1 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $418 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $989 −$2 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $1,024 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $2,814 −$3 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $5,802 −$5 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $3,598 −$4 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1,056 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,484 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $962 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $1,062 −$2 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,066 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,853 −$3 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $3,251 −$3 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $2,995 −$4 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $3,126 −$4 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $2,119 −$3 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,186 −$2 -0%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $83 −$83 -100%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,225 −$3 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $1,121 −$1 -0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 05 $64 +$67 +105%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $4,612 −$5 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,820 −$4 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $1,124 −$2 -0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $44 +$57 +129%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,071 −$3 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $9,245 −$12 -0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $43 +$63 +146%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $249 +$2 +1%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? Jun 02 $475 $0 +0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $1,490 −$2 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $423 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $457 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 30 $422 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $418 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $413 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $409 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $349 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $347 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $310 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $426 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $4,747 −$5 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 26 $384 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $498 −$1 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants May 25 $70 +$65 +93%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $2,456 −$4 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $694 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $708 2d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $709 2d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $877 3d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $878 3d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $893 3d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $894 3d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $560 3d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $561 3d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $418 3d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $418 4d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $987 5d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $989 5d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,023 5d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,024 5d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,057 6d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,058 6d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,053 6d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,054 6d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,060 7d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,061 7d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,055 7d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,056 7d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,058 8d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,059 8d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $960 9d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $962 9d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,061 9d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,062 10d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,064 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $928.64 · official $928.64 (match) · 547 history records