Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:45:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xacfd…d567 crypto 248 markets active 2d ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$6 (-2%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate75%185W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day17.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$3
14 days−$6
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -15.7% -23.8% 59% 0% -23.8%
≤30d 248 -3.8% -12.9% 75% 16% -12.6%
≤90d 248 -3.8% -12.9% 75% 16% -12.6%
all 248 -3.8% -12.9% 75% 16% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 16% -12.6%
10% -21.3% 3% -21.0%
15% -28.9% 0% -28.6%
20% -35.8% 0% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses185 / 63
Open positions0
Markets (closed)248 / 248
History coverage20d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day17.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 248 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $0 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 490 history records