Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:52:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AC 0xacfe…2801 crypto 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 227d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,147 (+7%) realized +$2,106 · open +$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate92%33W / 3L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$738per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$1,532now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$9
14 days+$37
30 days+$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% +$64
finance 20% +$55
other 15% +$71
economics 7% +$21
world 4% +$9
tech 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 7 +2.4% -7.3% 100% 14% -8.4%
≤90d 16 +1.4% -8.3% 100% 6% -8.9%
all 36 +1.0% -8.6% 92% 3% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 3% -8.9%
10% -17.4% 0% -17.6%
15% -25.4% 0% -25.6%
20% -32.7% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$998) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$0 · ×1689.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×55750.19 per $1 lost it wins $55750.19
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

227d coverage
Net worth$1,532
Realized+$2,106
Unrealized+$41
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses33 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)36 / 41
History coverage227d
Avg bet$738
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $507 $507 +$0 (+0%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $329 $331 +$2 (+1%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $242 $243 +$1 (+0%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? No 84¢ 100¢ $198 $236 +$37 (+19%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $216 $216 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1,271 +$9 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 18 $321 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 14 $208 +$27 +13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 28 $10 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May? May 27 $649 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 26 $610 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 23 $10 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 23 $1,276 +$3 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 22 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? May 06 $43 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 27 $515 +$7 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 25 $705 +$6 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 18 $1,217 +$3 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of March? Mar 29 $1,258 +$1 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 26 $1,045 +$6 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of March? Mar 24 $1,452 +$6 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Mar 24 $1,282 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Mar 12 $725 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 07 $724 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 5? Mar 05 $294 +$1 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 05 $558 +$15 +3%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in February? Mar 03 $723 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Feb 25 $722 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $40 on February 12? Feb 13 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 February 2-8? Feb 08 $998 +$2 +0%
Will Solana reach $200 in February? Feb 08 $998 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? Jan 27 $992 +$6 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 12 $134 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Jan 09 $852 +$5 +1%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch? Dec 30 $955 +$32 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 14 $945 +$10 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 01 $918 +$27 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on November 17? Nov 19 $916 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on November 13? Nov 15 $914 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,100 on November 10? Nov 11 $913 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,100 November 3-9? Nov 08 $912 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $216 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $507 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $724 2d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $721 3d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $242 3d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $2,880 3d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? BUY No 40¢ $28 3d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? BUY No 32¢ $730 3d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? BUY No 32¢ $195 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $641 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $321 3d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $136 3d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $100 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $127 7d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $108 7d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $321 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $321 11d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $329 19d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $105 21d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $107 23d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $107 24d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? SELL No 100¢ $10 24d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,271 25d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May? SELL No 100¢ $374 25d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May? SELL No 100¢ $15 26d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May? SELL No 100¢ $10 26d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May? SELL No 100¢ $16 26d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May? SELL No 100¢ $11 26d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May? SELL No 100¢ $21 26d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May? SELL No 100¢ $71 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,532.48 · official $1,532.74 (match) · 145 history records