Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:12:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AC 0xacfe…41a3 crypto 367 markets active 2h ago coverage 260d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$586 (+8%) realized +$593 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate54%191W / 161L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$144now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$92
7 days+$21
14 days+$21
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$554
other 3% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -10.8% -19.3% 59% 55% -4.8%
≤30d 23 -14.7% -22.8% 57% 52% -7.6%
≤90d 263 -22.9% -30.3% 48% 36% -19.7%
all 352 -0.5% -10.0% 54% 42% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 42% -2.7%
10% -18.6% 38% -12.1%
15% -26.5% 33% -20.6%
20% -33.7% 28% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$10 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

260d coverage
Net worth$144
Realized+$593
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses191 / 161
Open positions10
Markets (closed)352 / 367
History coverage260d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 352 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 46¢ 86¢ $20 $37 +$17 (+86%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 76¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+14%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? Up 65¢ 68¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $11 $14 +$3 (+31%)
Ethereum Up or Down on June 21? Up 59¢ 52¢ $16 $14 −$2 (-13%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 46¢ $16 $12 −$5 (-28%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $31 $8 −$23 (-73%)
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-28%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$15 +57%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $16 +$8 +50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $16 +$12 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? Jun 20 $17 +$11 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 20? Jun 20 $17 +$14 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? Jun 19 $21 +$14 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 19? Jun 19 $21 +$18 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 18 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +19%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$7 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET Jun 16 $35 +$21 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$4 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 21? May 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12AM ET May 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET May 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET May 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7PM ET May 21 $8 +$12 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6PM ET May 21 $6 +$18 +291%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 20? May 20 $17 +$17 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20? May 20 $5 +$3 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11AM ET May 20 $3 +$7 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 20 $5 +$9 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1AM ET May 20 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET May 20 $3 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 20 $3 +$4 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET May 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 19? May 19 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12PM ET May 19 $10 +$8 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 19 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5AM ET May 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4AM ET May 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1AM ET May 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2AM ET May 19 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5AM ET May 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9PM ET May 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET May 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 21? BUY Up 59¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Up 65¢ $16 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 3¢ $3 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY 46¢ $4 11h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $16 11h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $16 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? SELL Up 92¢ $27 11h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 20? SELL Up 95¢ $31 11h
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 14h
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 19h
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 47¢ $15 32h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 8¢ $12 32h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 20? BUY Up 49¢ $17 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? BUY Up 54¢ $17 32h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 19? SELL Up 96¢ $29 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? SELL Up 98¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? SELL Up 98¢ $7 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? SELL Up 98¢ $7 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? SELL Up 98¢ $7 34h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Up 57¢ $21 2d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 19? BUY Up 50¢ $21 2d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 21¢ $6 2d
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 57¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $144.07 · official $166.07 · 935 history records