Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:35:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AC 0xacff…4176 other 99 markets active 2h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$68 (+3%) realized +$37 · open +$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%53W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$160now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days+$159
14 days+$130
30 days+$136
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$178
sports 34% −$114
world 1% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +30.1% +17.7% 67% 67% +10.3%
≤30d 25 +16.2% +5.1% 60% 60% +1.3%
≤90d 48 +18.6% +7.3% 65% 65% +2.2%
all 97 -1.9% -11.2% 55% 55% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 55% -7.5%
10% -19.7% 55% -16.4%
15% -27.5% 55% -24.5%
20% -34.6% 48% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$25 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$160
Realized+$37
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses53 / 44
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)97 / 99
History coverage168d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Côte dIvoire 58¢ 84¢ $64 $93 +$28 (+44%)
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Curaçao 59¢ 62¢ $64 $67 +$3 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $46 +$38 +83%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $56 −$55 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $87 −$86 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $69 +$76 +109%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $69 −$68 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $81 +$85 +105%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$71 +140%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $36 +$42 +119%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $32 +$17 +52%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $39 −$39 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $36 +$20 +57%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $36 $0 -1%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 +$29 +93%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $29 +$12 +44%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $31 +$16 +50%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $31 −$31 -99%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? Jun 13 $47 +$40 +86%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 13 $47 +$44 +93%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $37 −$37 -99%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $45 −$45 -99%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $47 −$46 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $47 −$46 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 24 $31 +$25 +83%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-17? May 24 $35 +$29 +83%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 24 $40 +$44 +109%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-10? May 16 $25 +$14 +57%
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) May 16 $25 +$16 +62%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 16 $25 +$20 +79%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) May 16 $34 +$18 +52%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $37 −$36 -99%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-02? May 10 $24 +$14 +57%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-02? May 10 $24 +$22 +90%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) May 10 $25 +$26 +105%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $25 −$25 -98%
Spread: AFC Bournemouth (-1.5) May 03 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-19? May 02 $18 +$13 +76%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? May 02 $20 +$11 +57%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? May 02 $22 +$15 +70%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-19? May 02 $17 +$23 +129%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $23 −$23 -98%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $14 +$10 +73%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $15 +$12 +79%
Spread: Leeds United FC (-1.5) Apr 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-22? Apr 18 $19 +$13 +70%
Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5) Apr 18 $22 +$13 +59%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Apr 18 $21 +$15 +70%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Apr 08 $21 −$21 -99%
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) Mar 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 22 $25 +$13 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 59¢ $65 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 58¢ $65 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 54¢ $46 21h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 43¢ $56 22h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 65¢ $87 31h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $69 2d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 50¢ $69 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $81 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 2d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $36 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $32 3d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 66¢ $39 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 65¢ $36 5d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 63¢ $36 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $36 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $31 5d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Australia 69¢ $29 6d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Qatar 66¢ $31 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $31 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 63¢ $37 8d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY South Africa 60¢ $45 9d
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 53¢ $47 27d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $47 27d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $47 27d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 53¢ $47 27d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 47¢ $40 34d
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 54¢ $35 34d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 54¢ $31 35d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 66¢ $37 36d
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) BUY West Ham United FC 65¢ $34 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $160.09 · official $161.20 (match) · 156 history records