Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:56:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad05…4122 other 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 271d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate39%15W / 23L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% $0
world 26% +$3
politics 16% $0
finance 6% $0
crypto 5% $0
sports 4% $0
economics 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.4% -9.2% 33% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 12 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 12 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -8.6%
all 38 -0.3% -9.8% 39% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.4% 0% -17.9%
15% -26.3% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.23 per $1 lost it wins $3.23
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

271d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses15 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage271d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 82¢ 81¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $8 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $35 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $31 $0 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $32 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $27 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $1 $0 -7%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $22 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $32 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $30 +$2 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $30 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $21 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $1 $0 -2%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Nov 14 $35 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 06 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Oct 06 $2 $0 -8%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 06 $19 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 06 $19 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 05 $19 $0 -1%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? Oct 05 $19 $0 -1%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Oct 02 $20 $0 -0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Oct 02 $14 $0 +1%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus? Oct 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 01 $22 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 30 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $10 $0 +1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 29 $11 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 28 $15 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Sep 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 27 $14 $0 -0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 26 $14 $0 -3%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Sep 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in 2025? Sep 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 24 $29 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Sep 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Sep 23 $28 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $32 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $8 11h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $8 13h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $35 43h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $35 43h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $8 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $22 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $2 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $32 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $5 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $27 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $26 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $6 2d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $10 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $22 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $32 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $27 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $27 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $23 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $22 19d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $32 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $32 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 62¢ $32 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 59¢ $30 19d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $30 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 93¢ $30 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.78 · official $31.79 (match) · 111 history records