Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:33:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad08…c58b other 93 markets active 1h ago coverage 596d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$519 (-15%) realized −$562 · open +$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate33%27W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$398now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$57
14 days−$71
30 days−$114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$271
sports 27% −$122
politics 7% −$135
tech 3% +$6
crypto 3% +$6
world 2% +$12
economics 2% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -11.7% -20.1% 50% 38% -32.3%
≤30d 21 -29.7% -36.4% 38% 33% -36.1%
≤90d 23 -35.9% -42.0% 35% 30% -52.3%
all 82 -15.9% -23.9% 33% 26% -25.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.9% 26% -25.8%
10% -31.2% 21% -32.9%
15% -37.9% 21% -39.4%
20% -44.0% 17% -45.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$20 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

596d coverage
Net worth$398
Realized−$562
Unrealized+$43
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses27 / 55
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)82 / 93
History coverage596d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 20¢ $60 $139 +$79 (+131%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 23¢ $79 $96 +$16 (+20%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $96 $80 −$15 (-16%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $80 $56 −$24 (-30%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $26 $20 −$6 (-25%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $14 $8 −$6 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $18 +$14 +75%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $11 +$7 +67%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $26 −$15 -57%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $26 −$7 -27%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $24 −$19 -78%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $39 +$7 +17%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $36 +$3 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $24 +$11 +46%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $36 −$12 -33%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +73%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$4 -39%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $10 +$4 +39%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $3 +$3 +82%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $110 −$108 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $25 −$24 -98%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B Jan 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner Jan 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Jan 31 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Jan 31 $25 +$26 +104%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner Jan 31 $139 −$139 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jan 31 $73 +$11 +15%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Jan 31 $26 +$16 +61%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION - Map 1 Winner Jan 31 $20 +$19 +94%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #14 Grou Jan 30 $87 +$6 +6%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs 3DMAX - Map 2 Winner Jan 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-In Jan 29 $53 +$39 +74%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jan 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jan 28 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs NIP - Map 2 Winner Jan 28 $23 +$22 +95%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs NIP - Map 1 Winner Jan 28 $10 +$19 +185%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-In Jan 28 $20 +$42 +212%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier Jan 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9INE (BO3) Jan 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BetBoom Team (BO3) Jan 16 $5 −$5 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 16 $14 +$8 +61%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jan 14 $36 −$35 -96%
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? Jan 14 $21 +$2 +7%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 14 $18 +$3 +18%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner Jan 14 $28 +$14 +50%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Monte (BO3) Jan 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score AND Will Germany win on 2 BUY 42¢ $32 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 57¢ $18 9h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 59¢ $11 29h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $11 29h
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score AND Will Croatia win on 2026- BUY 9¢ $19 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $19 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 12¢ $5 3d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $5 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? AN BUY 11¢ $10 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $48 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $46 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $79 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $39 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $36 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $24 7d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $24 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 25¢ $17 9d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 9d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 9d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $6 11d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 28¢ $6 11d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $10 11d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $10 12d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 14d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $14 16d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $14 16d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 71¢ $10 16d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $398.43 · official $429.88 · 227 history records