Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:19:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AD
0xad09…eadd
world · 75 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$6 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$6 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$41
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses30 / 44
Open positions1
Markets (closed)74 / 75
History coverage515d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 1 History 74 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $23 +$1 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $36 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 -5%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $6 −$1 -14%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $78 −$1 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $41 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $37 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 06 $18 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $10 $0 +3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $5 $0 -11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 04 $41 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $96 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 02 $52 +$2 +4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $77 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 28 $40 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $6 $0 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $48 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $36 −$1 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $93 −$10 -11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $36 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $292 +$2 +1%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 12 $309 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? May 12 $12 −$1 -8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 11 $40 −$7 -17%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 18 $15 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon George Santos in 2025? Sep 23 $16 $0 -0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Sep 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 22 $15 $0 -0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 22 $16 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 22 $14 +$3 +18%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 10 $8 $0 -4%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Sep 10 $15 +$1 +5%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Aug 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 06 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 04 $12 $0 +1%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 03 $2 $0 -3%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 02 $13 $0 +2%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 02 $13 $0 -0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 50,000-100,000 betwee Jul 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 01 $12 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jul 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $13 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $1 $0 +4%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 19 $1 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 58% −$15
other 28% −$1
politics 7% +$4
sports 2% +$7
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% +$3
weather 1% −$4
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $41 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $24 6h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 74¢ $23 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $17 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $18 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $0 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $26 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $9 22h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 26h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 28h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 28h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $5 33h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $6 35h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $18 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 46¢ $4 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 46¢ $15 6d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 6d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 6d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 6d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $32 7d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $5 7d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $37 7d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 81¢ $18 8d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 81¢ $18 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 9d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 9d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 9d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 9d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -2.6% -11.9% 33% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 21 -1.2% -10.6% 43% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 24 -2.1% -11.4% 38% 0% -10.4%
all 74 +0.7% -8.9% 41% 7% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 7% -9.8%
10% -17.6% 5% -18.5%
15% -25.6% 5% -26.3%
20% -32.9% 5% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.61 · official $40.61 (match) · 258 history records