Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:24:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AD 0xad0b…99fe sports 240 markets active 2d ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$202 (-4%) realized −$215 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate54%127W / 108L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$79est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$133
14 days−$114
30 days−$333
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$251
other 3% −$32
world 2% +$11
politics 0% −$3
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -5.4% -14.4% 55% 48% -18.8%
≤30d 212 -6.7% -15.6% 52% 50% -14.7%
≤90d 235 -5.5% -14.5% 54% 51% -13.8%
all 235 -5.5% -14.5% 54% 51% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 51% -13.8%
10% -22.7% 48% -22.0%
15% -30.2% 41% -29.6%
20% -37.0% 30% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$15 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized−$215
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses127 / 108
Est. fees paid−$79
Open positions5
Markets (closed)235 / 240
History coverage66d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 235 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 17¢ 28¢ $25 $40 +$15 (+62%)
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) 9z 58¢ 86¢ $8 $12 +$4 (+48%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $12 $9 −$3 (-25%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+83%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 52¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 77 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 +$4 +64%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $6 +$4 +67%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $4 +$3 +64%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $49 −$12 -25%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $47 −$9 -18%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $49 −$49 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$4 -97%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $8 +$7 +90%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $18 +$33 +188%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $87 −$24 -28%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $34 +$12 +35%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $13 +$13 +103%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $13 +$8 +66%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $31 −$1 -4%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $15 +$8 +54%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $13 +$2 +13%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $8 +$4 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 $0 -5%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $66 +$4 +6%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $74 +$8 +10%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $26 −$5 -19%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $21 +$17 +79%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $15 +$6 +37%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $39 −$39 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $97 −$69 -71%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $15 +$5 +36%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $23 +$9 +38%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $13 +$10 +76%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $8 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $15 +$14 +93%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $25 +$16 +65%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $13 +$7 +58%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $35 +$13 +36%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $25 −$25 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $10 +$8 +76%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Jun 09 $10 +$8 +76%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $10 +$8 +83%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $27 +$3 +10%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $15 +$11 +70%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 07 $15 +$8 +55%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $20 −$18 -87%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Resilience 100¢ $6 2d
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Resilience 60¢ $4 2d
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Team Resilience 59¢ $6 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $7 2d
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 58¢ $8 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY 60¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 66¢ $31 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 59¢ $28 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 29¢ $8 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $21 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 72¢ $21 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 66¢ $20 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $49 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 51¢ $18 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $27 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 9¢ $5 3d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 52¢ $8 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 37¢ $8 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 80¢ $43 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 9¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $13 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 48¢ $62 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 65¢ $87 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $42 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 30¢ $8 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 10¢ $3 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 22¢ $8 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 99¢ $26 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 65¢ $13 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 48¢ $13 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.73 · official $70.73 (match) · 522 history records