Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:53:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AD 0xad0b…c69d crypto 30 markets active 6d ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$120 (-37%) realized −$120 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate53%16W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$15
14 days−$15
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$123
sports 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -6.7% -15.6% 63% 11% -17.2%
≤30d 27 -5.5% -14.5% 59% 22% -17.3%
≤90d 29 -12.0% -20.4% 55% 21% -46.4%
all 30 -11.6% -20.0% 53% 20% -45.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 20% -45.5%
10% -27.7% 17% -50.7%
15% -34.7% 10% -55.5%
20% -41.1% 7% -59.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$10 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$120
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses16 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage135d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$11 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $20 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$3 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 31 $5 −$3 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 31 $2 −$1 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 31 $6 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 31 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 31 $1 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 31 $2 +$4 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 31 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Apr 23 $107 −$106 -99%
Lakers vs. Cavaliers Apr 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bucks vs. Wizards Jan 29 $8 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 95 history records