Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T01:34:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AD 0xad0d…4d09 sports 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$235 (-7%) realized −$235 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%8W / 7L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$138per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$823
other 18% −$45
crypto 15% +$180
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +9.2% -1.2% 53% 53% +31.9%
≤30d 15 +9.2% -1.2% 53% 53% +31.9%
≤90d 15 +9.2% -1.2% 53% 53% +31.9%
all 15 +9.2% -1.2% 53% 53% +31.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.2% 53% +31.9%
10% -10.7% 40% +19.3%
15% -19.3% 33% +7.7%
20% -27.2% 27% -2.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +44% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late +56% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$163 vs −$50 · ×3.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.74 per $1 lost it wins $3.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$235
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses8 / 7
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 25
History coverage4d
Avg bet$138
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $404 +$180 +45%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $407 +$617 +151%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $102 +$21 +21%
Paraguay to score first vs. Australia? Jun 26 $102 −$5 -5%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $78 −$46 -60%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score AND Will Switzerland win o Jun 24 $102 +$187 +183%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $101 +$53 +52%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 AND Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Will F Jun 23 $203 +$206 +101%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $51 −$6 -12%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $128 −$5 -4%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score AND Jun 23 $101 +$35 +35%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $58 +$8 +14%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $503 −$236 -47%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $41 −$40 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? SELL 99¢ $584 24m
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $1,024 25m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 10¢ $50 48m
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 51¢ $123 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $102 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 1h
Paraguay to score first vs. Australia? SELL Yes 45¢ $96 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 12¢ $29 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $102 2h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $204 2h
Paraguay to score first vs. Australia? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 2h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $78 2h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY 26¢ $198 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY 17¢ $199 2h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 40¢ $200 2h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score AND Will Brazil win on 2026-0 BUY 35¢ $45 27h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY 68¢ $404 27h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 AND Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in BUY 19¢ $51 28h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score AND Will Switzerland win o SELL 74¢ $290 28h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score AND Will Switzerland win o BUY 25¢ $102 30h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-2 BUY 10¢ $103 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY 38¢ $102 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY 59¢ $101 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 65¢ $101 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 50¢ $45 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $51 3d
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY No $5 3d
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 32¢ $20 3d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score AND SELL 80¢ $136 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $194.17 · 47 history records