Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:00:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AD
0xad10…c850
crypto · 1297 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$624 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$627 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$42
Realized−$627
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses759 / 531
Open positions7
Markets (closed)1290 / 1297
History coverage82d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day32.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 7 History 1290 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$18
30 days−$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on June 13? No 85¢ 95¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 13? No 78¢ 86¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 13? No 86¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on June 13? No 88¢ 95¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? No 83¢ 88¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? No 72¢ 66¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 13? No 87¢ 96¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on June 9? No 55¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 11? No 77¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 23, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? No 75¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Down 67¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - April 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 7, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +37%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 12 $6 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 12 $4 +$1 +31%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 12 $6 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$2 +31%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 12 $6 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +19%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 12 $0 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 11? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 11? Jun 12 $4 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 11? Jun 12 $4 +$2 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$2 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 11 $4 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 11 $6 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$2 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 11? Jun 11 $6 +$2 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 11 $6 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 11 $6 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 11 $6 +$2 +31%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 11 $6 +$1 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 10? Jun 11 $6 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 10? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $4 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 10 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 94-95°F on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 10 $9 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 10 $4 +$3 +72%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 10 $4 +$1 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 9? Jun 10 $4 +$2 +41%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 10 $2 +$3 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 9? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 09 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 09 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 8? Jun 09 $4 +$1 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 8? Jun 09 $4 +$1 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 8? Jun 09 $4 +$1 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 8? Jun 09 $3 +$2 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 77% −$621
sports 14% +$21
other 5% −$15
weather 4% +$4
tech 0% −$12
politics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $5 14m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 78¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 13? BUY No 88¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? BUY No 72¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY No 85¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 88¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 86¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? BUY No 83¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 13? BUY No 87¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $2 22h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL No 98¢ $6 22h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL No 98¢ $5 23h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL No 99¢ $2 23h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $8 23h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL No 99¢ $4 23h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju SELL No 99¢ $7 23h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 12? SELL No 98¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL No 98¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 92¢ $6 24h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $6 24h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 92¢ $0 25h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 12? BUY No 71¢ $1 29h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY No 89¢ $5 29h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY No 75¢ $6 29h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY No 75¢ $6 29h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 74¢ $4 29h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? BUY No 83¢ $5 29h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY No 82¢ $1 29h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 86¢ $6 29h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY No 85¢ $6 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 +2.7% -7.1% 79% 60% -9.2%
≤30d 284 -6.5% -15.4% 63% 43% -13.1%
≤90d 1290 -6.4% -15.3% 59% 33% -17.1%
all 1290 -6.4% -15.3% 59% 33% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover32.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 33% -17.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 24% -25.0%
15% -30.8% 16% -32.3%
20% -37.6% 10% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.44 · official $42.44 (match) · 3500 history records