Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:21:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad10…fc07 other 108 markets active 2h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$1,070 (-1%) realized −$1,070 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate17%18W / 89L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,187per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$544now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$8
14 days−$15
30 days−$1,093
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$693
politics 31% −$44
sports 22% −$345
culture 2% −$4
world 2% −$5
economics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
crypto 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 23 -4.5% -13.6% 9% 0% -14.8%
≤90d 70 -18.4% -26.2% 10% 4% -11.0%
all 107 -6.6% -15.5% 17% 12% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 12% -10.3%
10% -23.6% 11% -18.9%
15% -31.0% 11% -26.7%
20% -37.7% 7% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 59% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,648) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$25 · ×2.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$544
Realized−$1,070
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses18 / 89
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)107 / 108
History coverage123d
Avg bet$1,187
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $544 $544 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $385 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,670 −$3 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $789 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $807 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $805 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $819 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $1,922 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $709 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,975 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $891 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $646 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 04 $205 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 04 $238 +$1 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $381 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 28 $310 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $225 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 28 $309 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $210 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 24 $476 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $2,675 −$3 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $683 −$1 -0%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-11? May 22 $1,071 −$1,071 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $3,589 −$4 -0%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-08? May 11 $1,125 +$537 +48%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $1,085 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $1,037 −$1 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 05 $1,032 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 27 $1,050 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $3,958 −$4 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $4,253 −$6 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $4,690 −$3 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $2,115 −$2 -0%
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by Ap Apr 10 $10 $0 +5%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $2,739 −$3 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $2,135 −$2 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $1,258 −$1 -0%
Will the Seattle Kraken win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 07 $1,153 $0 +0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $4,824 −$5 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 03 $4,701 −$5 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? Apr 02 $62 $0 +0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $3,880 −$4 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $1,701 −$2 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $3,015 −$3 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 27 $5,882 −$6 -0%
Spread: Nebraska Cornhuskers (-1.5) Mar 27 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 26 $812 −$1 -0%
Hawks vs. Pistons Mar 26 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 26 $2,190 −$2 -0%
Magic vs. Cavaliers Mar 25 $68 −$68 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $385 1h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $385 3h
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $544 2d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $850 3d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $851 4d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $788 4d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $789 5d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $805 5d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $807 5d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $804 6d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $805 6d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $818 6d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $819 6d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $831 11d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $832 11d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $818 12d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $819 12d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $708 12d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $709 13d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $641 13d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $642 13d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $890 13d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $891 13d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $645 14d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $646 14d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $380 18d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $381 18d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $309 21d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $310 21d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $225 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $543.50 · official $543.50 (match) · 378 history records